NBA Pick: Orlando Magic, San Antonio Spurs ‘under’ 198½

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 3, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

The Magic have an injury depleted roster that besides missing its two leading scorers Arron Afflalo and Glen Davis is now also without Jameer Nelson, so go ‘under’ in San Antonio.

The visiting team should have a hard time scoring vs. a good defense with a depleted roster on Wednesday night when the Orlando Magic (19-56, 8-29 away) pay a visit to the San Antonio Spurs (55-19, 32-5 home) at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX at 8:35 ET.

The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 198½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

This game obviously looks like a blowout on paper, but while we have no interest in giving double-digits with the Spurs, the fact that San Antonio figures to be the only team scoring with the Magic fielding a D-League team at the current time has us liking the ‘under’ here quite a bit.

The Magic have an injury depleted roster right now, as they are already without their two leading scorers Arron Afflalo (16.5 points per game) and Glen Davis (15.1) for the season, and now their only steady veteran remaining Jameer Nelson (14.7 points, 7.4 assists) is expected to miss his third straight game with a sprained ankle.

On top of this, Hedo Turkoglu may be in the doghouse as he did not play Monday when he was eligible to return after serving his 20-game suspension for violating the league drug policy.

With that backdrop, the Magic rank 23rd in the NBA in scoring with 94.5 points per game and that average is down to 93.3 points over the last eight games. Yes, Orlando put up 103 points in Houston on Monday, but that was vs. a Rockets team that plays at the fastest pace in the league and plays no defense. They face no such foe this evening, so look for the Magic’s scoring woes with a very young active roster to resume again.

Now the Spurs have lost back-to-back games for the first time in four months and they are dealing with their own injuries with Manu Ginobili out three-to-four weeks with a strained hamstring and Kawhi Leonard day-to-day with a sore knee.

The Spurs also held out Tim Duncan in the second game of a back-to-back Monday, when they lost their second two-point game in two nights 92-90 to the Memphis Grizzlies after losing 88-86 to a Miami Heat team playing without LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Mario Chalmers on Sunday despite San Antonio playing with a full roster besides Ginobili. In fact, the Spurs have now had five straight games decided by two points or less!

That does not figure to be the case tonight as the Spurs should be able to score. However, their defense should keep the ‘under’ safe vs. a depleted offense as San Antonio has allowed 100 points just once on the last seven games and now ranks ninth in the NBA in both points allowed and field goal percentage against.

Finally, there is always the chance that Coach Gregg Popovich could keep Duncan out one more game with this being the first game of a back-to-back and the Spurs having a much tougher game at Oklahoma City tomorrow where he should be needed more.

Regardless of whether Duncan plays or not though, the ‘under’ looks like the play on Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/223736/93-238-19-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Magic, Spurs ‘under’ 198½ (-110)