NBA Pick on Orlando Magic ATS in Spoiler Role at Brooklyn

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 15, 2015 2:07 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Wednesday.

 



The home team fighting for a playoff spot may not have an easy go of it Wednesday night when the Orlando Magic (25-56, 12-28 away) look to play the spoiler role when they pay a visit to those Brooklyn Nets (37-44, 18-22 home) at the Barclay Center in Brooklyn, NY at 8:05 ET in a game available on YES.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Orlando as a decided underdog for this contest with the current line at +8 with odds of -105.


Nets Need a Win and Some Help
The Nets enter this final day of the NBA regular season one game behind the hot Indiana Pacers for the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference, but Brooklyn owns the tiebreaker over the Pacers and would claim that last spot with a win here combined with an Indiana loss at Memphis in a game that tips off later than this one. The Nets lost control of their own playoff destiny when they were routed by the Bulls here at home 113-86 on Monday.

The Magic have shown improvement over last season and their future looks bright with a nice young nucleus in Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon. They have even been the winning NBA picks on the road 12 times this year, which may not seem like much until you consider that Orlando went just 4-37 on the road last season with only one road win from January 1st onward!


Not Playing Like Playoff Contender
The Nets simply do not have the look of a team playing for a playoff spot while going 2-4 over the last six games, instead looking very tight in blowout losses the last two games, as their 27-point home loss to Chicago Monday was preceded by a 23-point loss at Milwaukee. And the major culprit for this late swoon at the most crucial time has been very shoddy defense.

In fact the Nets are allowing 105.6 points per game in their last seven games going back to a 114-109 win over the Toronto Raptors on April 3rd while allowing a ridiculous 49.2 percent shooting over those seven games. And remember that Brooklyn is a team that plays at a slow tempo ranking 24th in the NBA in pace rating under former Memphis Grizzles Coach Lionel Hollins, which makes all of those recent points allowed even more distressing.


Magic Enjoying Spoiler Role
Now the Magic come in on a three-game losing streak and they did not really play with much energy the last two games while first losing to the team in the race for the worst record in the NBA in the New York Knicks and then to a Miami Heat team that has been eliminated from playoff contention. However, Orlando was much sharper the previous three games vs. teams that are in the playoffs, so they seem to be relishing the spoiler role.

In those contests, the Magic may have affected seeding by beating the Chicago Bulls and the Milwaukee Bucks outright, with that latter win coming on the road, and they then put up a great fight vs. the Raptors before just missing 101-99, covering the spread as five-point underdogs. After seeming disinterested in the last two losses both vs. also-rans, look for an increase in the Orlando energy level tonight with a chance to eliminate a team from the playoffs.


Orlando Has Played Brooklyn Tough
And keep in mind that the Magic have played the Nets well in recent meetings, covering the spread in both matchups this season and going 4-0 ATS in the last four encounters going back to the last two meetings last year, when the Magic were not as good as they are this year and the Nets were probably better.

Add this all up and while Orlando may or may not pull of the spoiling upset, look for the Magic to fight hard from start to finish and cover this rather inflated point spread in Brooklyn on Wednesday.

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NBA Pick: Magic +8 (-105)