NBA Pick On Nuggets To Be Golden ATS As Dogs To Timberwolves

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, December 15, 2015 7:17 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015 7:17 PM UTC

The Minnesota Timberwolves had lost six of their last seven games and they are just 3-9 at home this year, so they look like overlays as favorites vs. the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: Nuggets +5½ (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

One of the worst home teams in the league could be an overlay Tuesday night as a home favorite when the Denver Nuggets (10-14, 11-12-1 ATS), winners of two straight games, pay a visit to those Minnesota Timberwolves (9-14, 10-12-1 ATS) at the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN at 8:05 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - North.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Denver as a decided road underdog for this contest with the current line at +5½ with odds of -105.


Teams Going Opposite Directions
This certainly appears to be a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions. Such was not the case on December 2nd, when Denver opened up this calendar month by losing its eighth straight game overall vs. the Bulls in Chicago. However, do not look now but the Nuggets have won four of their last five games since then and they have improved to a quasi-respectable 11-12-1 ATS.

The Timberwolves on the other hand simply cannot get on track, as they have now been the losing NBA picks in six of their last seven games since actually getting to .500 at 8-8. Minnesota games may be entertaining and high scoring, but the T-Wolves will have trouble winning games with a defense that is allowing 103.5 points per game. This is a rematch from Friday night, when the Nuggets prevailed 111-108 in overtime in Denver.


Nuggets Decent on Road for a Change
The Nuggets then followed up that win over these Timberwolves by beating the Houston Rockets 114-108 last night, surviving despite the Rockets hoisting up 40 three-point attempts and making 18 of them! Denver also overcame 18 turnovers Monday thanks to shooting 51.2 percent from the floor (42-for-82) to notch its second straight win and fourth in the last five.

Now, the Nuggets have been a team over the years that has had a good home court advantage due to the altitude of Denver but that has struggled on the road. Such has not been the case this year though as the Nuggets have identical 5-7 straight up records both home and away, and their current hot stretch includes a nice road upset of the Toronto Raptors!

Therefore, Denver could bring its fine shooting from last night with it on the road here vs. the porous Minnesota defense, which is obviously a nice trait for an underdog. The Nuggets may still be shooting just 42.8 percent for the season, but hey have raised that percentage to 44.2 percent over the last five games including a very respectable 47.0 percent over the four wins during this span.


What Home Court Advantage
The Timberwolves are 24th in the NBA in points against at 103.5 per game and they have been worse than that recently while allowing a minimum of 108 points in each of their last five games, during which they are allowing a hideous 112.0 points per contest on 47.1 shooting overall and 38.1 percent from beyond the three-point arc. Thus, the fact that the offense has averaged 108.2 points over those same five games was rendered moot.

Furthermore, only the 1-25 Philadelphia 76ers and the 3-21 Los Angeles Lakers have won fewer home games this year than the Timberwolves, who are a disastrous 3-9 straight up here at the Target Center while getting outscored by -5.0 points per game and going an almost incomprehensible 1-10-1 ATS! Those numbers do not exactly exude confidence while being asked to give 5½ points here.

Minnesota appears to have a nice nucleus thanks to owning the number one picks in each of the last two NBA Drafts, with last year’s top pick Andrew Wiggins leading the team in scoring at 20.6 points per game and this year’s number one pick Karl-Anthony Towns leading the club in rebounds with his 9.2 per game, but we still have a difficult time giving the Timberwolves our support until that can improve their defense and especially their play at home.


Road Team Dominance
Finally, this has certainly been a visitors’ head-to-head series as the road teams are a resounding 25-7-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings, with the Nuggets going 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Minnesota!

Given how bad the Timberwolves have been at home this season along with the Nuggets’ recent improvement, expect the road-team dominance in this series to continue when Denver visits Minnesota on Tuesday.

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