NBA Pick on New York Knicks ATS as Huge Dogs in Washington

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, April 3, 2015 3:36 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Friday.

 



The team with the worst record in the NBA may actually be the right side Friday night as a big underdog when those New York Knicks (14-61, 5-32 away) pay a visit to the Washington Wizards (42-33, 27-12 home) at the Verizon Center in Washington, DC at 7:05 ET in a game available on MSG.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has New York as a huge underdog for this contest with the current line at +14½ with odds of -101.


Can Wizards Repeat Last Performance
The Wizards come off of their best game in a while in a 106-93 win over the 76ers where they shot 57.9 percent from the field for just their second win in the last seven games, but given their dubious recent form, we are not so sure they can duplicate that performance here in a relatively meaningless game, as Washington seems to be securely set as the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference with basically no chance to move up or down.

Now do not get us wrong, the Knicks have “earned” their standing as the worst team in the NBA with the league’s worst record, and they have now been the losing NBA picks in eight straight games since almost inexplicably shocking the San Antonio Spurs. But that may be just the point as the Knicks have risen up at times vs. playoff teams, and we simply feel that the Wizards have no right being favored by 14½ points over anyone right now.


Still Not Shooting Well
Even the win over the 76ers was by only 13 points, which allowed the Wizards to cover the spread that day but would not be a big enough margin to cover the spread here, and remember that Washington had a 31-point lead in the third quarter of that game before Philadelphia cut that lead in the latter stages to threaten the 10-point spread.

And even with the good shooting that game, the Wizards are still averaging just 94.6 points on 42.9 percent shooting the last eight games.

Furthermore, even when the Wizards are playing well they are not a team that typically blows teams out, as Washington is just 19th in the NBA in scoring this season averaging 98.4 points per game and it is only 17th in the league in offensive efficiency. Also, the Wizards were an identical 14½-point favorite just as they are here the last time the faced the Knicks January 7th here in Washington when they were still playing well, and they failed to cover that night 101-91.


Feisty Knicks as of Late
Apparently, with nothing else to look forward to, the Knicks are saving their best games right now for when they play either teams that are in the playoffs or teams that are fighting for playoff spots! Besides the aforementioned recent stunner over the Spurs, New York gave two Eastern Conference teams desperate for wins while fighting for the last playoff spot all that they can handle within the last three games.

First, the Knicks threw a scare into the Boston Celtics before ultimately falling but covering as 10½-point underdogs in a 96-92 loss last Friday, and then in their most recent game vs. the Brooklyn Nets, the Knicks overcame a 14-point deficit to begin the fourth quarter to tie the game with one minute to play before a Brook Lopez bucket with two seconds left allowed the Nets to escape with a 100-98 win but with New York covering as a 9½-point dog.

A similar effort here vs. a potentially indifferent Washington team could again allow the Knicks to at least hang around within single-digits by game’s end.


Washington Horrific ATS Second Half of Season
Finally, while the Knicks may have the league’s worst record, no team has burned more money betting-wise than the Wizards have over the second half of the season as even with the last ATS cover over the Sixers, that still leaves Washington at a dreadful 9-24 ATS over its last 33 games!

That kind of negative run simply cannot be ignored, so look for even a New York team with the worst record in the league to hang around at this seemingly inflated spread when it pays a visit to Washington, DC on Friday.

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NBA Pick: Knicks +14½ (-101)