NBA Pick on Nets to Cover Big Spread at Clippers

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, January 22, 2015 7:23 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Thursday.

 

The big underdog could hold value in a Thursday late night non-conference NBA battle when those Brooklyn Nets (18-24, 10-10 away) pay a visit to the Los Angeles Clippers (28-14, 18-7 home) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Brooklyn as a double-digit underdog for this contest with the current line at +12 with odds of -105.


Both Teams in Playoffs as of Now
The Clippers are chasing the team with the best record in basketball the Golden State Warriors in the Pacific Division, as they are in second place but seven games back. Los Angeles has not helped itself by going a nondescript 4-3 in its last seven games despite being favored in all three losses, perhaps missing a chance to close more significant ground in the division. At least the Clips do not seem to be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs, believe it or not the 18-24 Nets would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, as in the watered down Eastern Conference, being six games under .500 leaves the Nets in second place in the Atlantic Division and as the eighth and final playoff seed in the East. Brooklyn does come off of a 103-100 road NBA pick win over the Kings in Sacramento last night.


Taking the East Too Lightly?
What is interesting about the three recent Clippers’ upset losses is that they were all vs. Eastern conference teams here at home vs. Miami, Atlanta and Cleveland, and they even had a non-covering win vs. another East club on Monday vs. Boston to make in an 0-4 ATS run in non-conference games and 4-8 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference here at home for the season while going a mediocre 7-5 straight up despite being favored in all 12 games!

The Clippers are obviously a better team than that as evidenced by their fine play inside the tougher Western Conference for the most part and by their position in the standings, but the defense has been an issue this season ranking 19th in the NBA in points against at 100.5 per game and it has been worse than that recently allowing a distressing average of 105.0 points over the last five games.


Uncanny Success vs. Pacific Division
Meanwhile the Nets’ win in Sacramento last night continued the Nets’ uncanny success at the betting windows vs. the Pacific Division, bringing Brooklyn to 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games vs. that division! Perhaps one reason for that success is because the Nets are usually big underdogs vs. Pacific teams that like to run and Brooklyn has done a good job of slowing the pace of those games to its liking.

The Nets have been a plodding team for several years and that is the same methodical style that new head coach Lionel Hollins ran when he coached the Memphis Grizzlies, so there has been virtually no transition stylistically for the Nets since parting ways with Jason Kidd. This year the Nets are 26th in the NBA in Pace Rating and that is one reason why they are simultaneously 23rd in the league is scoring and 10th in points against at just 97.9 per game.

Their ability to slow the tempo gives the Nets inherent value as double-digit underdogs in this spot.


5-0 ATS Last Five vs. Clippers
Finally, the aforementioned Brooklyn success vs. the Pacific Division includes going a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the Clippers including three outright upsets during this span.

Look for Brooklyn to make it 6-0 ATS vs. the Clippers by hanging around inside this bloated point spread in Los Angeles on Thursday.

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NBA Pick: Nets +12 (-105)