NBA Pick on Nets ATS as Underdogs vs. Wizards in Washington

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 6, 2016 3:12 PM GMT

The big points seem worth taking as NBA pick in a matchup of two teams that will probably be watching the Playoffs on TV when the Nets visit the Wizards.

 

There appears to be a very inflated spread Wednesday night in a matchup of two probable also-rans in the playoff chase when the long ago eliminated Brooklyn Nets (21-56, 37-39 ATS) pay a visit to the just about eliminated Washington Wizards (37-40, 39-38 ATS) at the Verizon Center in Washington, DC at 7:05 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet - Mid Atlantic. The point spread has Brooklyn as a huge double-digit underdog for this contest with the current line at +14 on the NBA odds boards at odds of -105.

 

Wizards Need a Miracle
Technically, the Wizards are still alive for a playoff spot, but they would need a miracle to pull it off. Washington is the 10-seed in the East and 3½ games out of a playoff spot with five games to play, and remember that the ninth seeded Chicago Bulls are also in the way. So after finally returning to the playoffs the last two years after a prolonged absence and even winning a series each year, hopes for a third straight post-season appearance are just about gone.

The Nets on the other hand were long eliminated from playoff contention, and at 21-56, only being in the same division as the Philadelphia 76ers is keeping Brooklyn out of last place. Moreover, the Nets have now been losing NBA picks in five straight games since winning back-to-back games vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Indiana Pacers, with the latter also in the playoffs as of now.

 

Tough Scheduling Spot
This is also a poor scheduling spot for the Wizards, who are playing their first game back home following a five game West Coast road trip, a spot in which teams are often very lethargic, especially at the outset of the game. That trip ended Sunday with a 114-109 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, as Washington ended the excursion with a 2-3 record with the two wins coming vs. the dregs of the league in the Lakers and Phoenix Suns.

One major difference between the Wizards of this season and the team that went to the playoffs the last two years has been defense, as after being among the league leaders in points against and field goal percentage allowed the last two years, they are allowing an unsightly 104.6 points per game this season while ranking 25th in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 46.5 percent, well up from the excellent 43.3 percent shooting allowed last year.

That lack of defense is a key reason why Washington has lost five of its last seven games since at least putting itself in a position to make a playoff run, and that defense also makes the Wizards quite untrustworthy in our minds giving this many points, regardless of the opponent. It is also not a good sign that guard Bradley Beal publicly questioned the effort of his team last week.

 

Lopez and Young Shut Down
After the Nets lost their fifth straight game Sunday to the New Orleans Pelicans at home, they announced that they were shutting down veteran forwards Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young for the rest of the regular season and that they would closely evaluate the rest of their roster of the final five games.

That also has an effect on this betting line, but we actually feel it could be giving the Nets better value here! That is because Brooklyn has looked very lethargic since the aforementioned back-to-back upsets of the Cavaliers and Pacers, and it was not as if Lopez and Young were racking up big numbers along the way anyway. Thus a youth movement at this time could actually give the squad an energy boost that it has been lacking.

Also you can expect a full effort by the Nets these last five games with their youngsters and back-ups showing what they can do while fighting for extra playing time next year, while as Beal correctly alluded to last week, a full effort has simply not been there a lot of times this season for the Wizards.

 

Not Very Resilient
Finally, the Wizards are not exactly a team known for the resiliency, as they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Washington also tends to play at the level of its competition, going 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams with losing straight up records.

We get that the Nets are slumping badly while the Wizards are mathematically still alive for the playoffs, but that combination seems to be skewing this line in a major way so we suggest going for the value and grabbing the double-digit points with Brooklyn when it visits Washington on Wednesday.

 

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883627, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,92,238,169,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: Nets +14 (-115)
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker