NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, May 28, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Wednesday.

In a selection that has a lot more to do with motivation than with talent level Wednesday night, look for the top seeds in the Eastern Conference to force a sixth game in the Eastern Conference Finals when the second seeded Miami Heat (65-30, 26-21 away) pay a visit to those Indiana Pacers (65-34, 39-11 home) for Game 5 from Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN at 8:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN with the Heat leading the series 3-1

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Indiana as a small home underdog for this contest with the current line at +1½ with odds of -106.

Even though the Pacers finished with the best record in the East this season and thus had home court advantage in this series, there was little doubt who the better team was coming in with the Heat installed as nearly a -400 favorite to win the series. And Miami is showing why as it is on the cusp of closing out the series with a 3-1 lead.

The Heat seemed disinterested while never leading in Game 1 and losing 107-96 in a horrific defensive performance, but they have since asserted themselves with three straight wins. Ultimately, Game 2 may go down as the deciding game of this series as that was the game that Miami did what it had to do by winning a game in Indiana 87-83 to snare home court advantage away from the Pacers.

The Heat then held serve with back-to-back 12-point wins at home that felt like the wins were by 20 points or more, as neither outcome was really in doubt during the second half. That brings us to Game 5 with the scenery again shifting back to Indianapolis. And that could be a key reason to expect to see a Game 6 on Friday night.

Well, that and the general Miami arrogance! You see, a lot of teams would go for the throat and do their best to wrap up this series tonight to get over a full week of rest before the NBA Finals begin next Thursday. However, anyone that has followed the Heat in recent years will tell you that they probably could not care less about that.

In their minds, the Heat know that this series is over because they know that they would not lose a Game 6 at home if it is necessary, so we do not expect Miami to extend a lot of energy here but rather an effort closer to their Game 3 loss to the Brooklyn Nets in the last series with a 2-0 series lead or, worse yet, an effort (using the term loosely) similar to Game 1 of this series.

On the flip side, we expect the Pacers to come out with a great sense of urgency as no team, let alone a top seed, wants to see its season end on its own floor. And remember that when they have needed to in their previous NBA Playoff series this year, the Pacers have managed to bring back the pre-All-Star break Indiana team that may have been the best team in the NBA in the time.

Remember also that Miami’s four-point win in Game 2 was the only time that the Heat have won in Indiana all year, and we do not expect Miami to bring nearly the same intensity into this game that it did then after losing Game 1.

Add this all up and while we do expect the Heat to close out this series in six games, we do expect Game 6 to take place with the Pacers winning Game 5 at home in Indianapolis on Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/291360/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Pacers +1½ (-106)