NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, May 21, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Wednesday, May. 21, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Wednesday.

Unlike the Eastern Conference Finals where the pace of the first two games was extremely different, look for a second consecutive ‘over’ in the Western Conference Finals Wednesday night when the second seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (67-29, 29-19 away) pay a visit to the top seeded San Antonio Spurs (71-24, 39-10 home) for Game 2 from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX at 9:05 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT. The Spurs lead the series 1-0.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 210 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -105.

We were way off base with our prediction that the defenses would come to play in Game 1 while going with the ‘under’ 209, as the Spurs coasted to a 122-105 triumph while shooting an unbelievable 57.5 percent from the field going 50-for-87, including 9-for-17 for 52.9 percent from three-point land! Granted the Thunder were held to 46.2 percent shooting, but that was offset by Oklahoma City getting off 80 shots in a fast-paced game.

Like a lot of people, we underestimated just how much the Thunder will miss the presence of defensive specialist Serge Ibaka, as the ageless Tim Duncan was able to get whatever he wanted going off for 27 points on 11-for-19 shooting, and he was just one of five Spurs to reach double-figures including 18 points from another veteran Manu Ginobili off the bench.

Now granted, San Antonio does not figure to shoot 57.5 percent again, but it may not have to for this game to go ‘over’ as Coach Gregg Popovich has become enamored with the Spurs forcing the pace every game. San Antonio finished sixth in the NBA in scoring at 105.4 points per game while ranking second in field goal percentage and leading the league in three-point shooting, but one thing the Spurs did not do during the regular season was beat the Thunder.

Well, the Spurs took care of that in a hurry after losing all four meetings during the year, and not having to deal with Ibaka’s defense was a key factor. To wit, San Antonio had an enormous 66-32 scoring advantage in the paint, and frankly we do not think there is much that Ibaka’s backups, mainly Steven Adams and Nick Collison, can do to keep the Spurs out of the paint and stop them from continuing to get easy looks again tonight.

Kevin Durant (28 points, nine rebounds, five assists) and Russell Westbrook (25 points, seven assists, five rebounds) did their best to try and keep the Thunder in the game in Game 1 to no avail, and we do not doubt that Oklahoma City will continue to lean heavily on their Dynamic Duo as it tries to avoid falling in an 0-2 series hole.

However, the Thunder got literally nothing, as in zero points, from Thabo Sefolosha and Collison and only five points from Kendrick Perkins, as the other two Thunder players to score double-digits both came off the bench in Derek Fisher (16) and Reggie Jackson (13). Expect Coach Scott Brooks to try and find some rather innovative ways to get the rest of the starters involved in the scoring column tonight, although the Big Two will obviously still carry the load.

One positive for Oklahoma City in Game 1 was going 12-for-27 for 44.4 percent from beyond the three-point arc, with Durant and Fisher making good in four treys each. That hot shooting from the land of three should continue tonight, and while that may not help translate to a Thunder victory or even a Thunder cover, it would continue to be a boon to the ‘over’ again.

This posted total is one point higher than it was for Game 1. but we do not think that is enough of an adjustment after seeing the ease with which the Spurs got in the paint without Ibaka blocking the lane, so go ‘over’ again in Game 2 from San Antonio on Wednesday.

[gameodds]5/291355/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Thunder, Spurs ‘over’ 210 (-105)

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