NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 10, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Tuesday.

With the ‘over’ and ‘under’ splitting the first two games of the NBA Finals, look for a relatively high scoring game Tuesday night with a change of scenery when the San Antonio Spurs (75-27, 33-16 away) pay a visit to the Miami Heat (67-32, 40-9 home) for Game 3 from American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL at 9:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ABC with the series tied 1-1.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 197½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -101.

We had the good fortune to be on the correct end of both totals in this series so far, calling the ‘over’ when the Spurs took Game 1 by a 110-95 count and then cashing the ‘under’ when the Heat stole a big road game in Game 2 in San Antonio 98-96, thus snatching home court advantage in this series for the time being after the Spurs had earned it with the best record in the NBA this season.

This series is a matchup of the top two shooting teams in the NBA this year in terms of shooting percentage and that was the case in the regular season as well as these playoffs! Miami led the NBA in shooting during the regular season at a fantastic 50.1 percent while San Antonio finished second at 48.6 percent, and remarkably each team is in the exact same position throughout this post-season with the Heat first at 49.7 percent and the Spurs second at 48.5.

However, both teams have yet to both be at their best offensively at the same time over the first two games, and that could be something that gets corrected tonight. In fact, the Spurs have yet to play their best game offensively as they actually committed 23 turnovers despite scoring 110 points in Game 1, and they then fell off to just 43.9 percent shooting in Game 2 including going just 6-for-17 from the field in the decisive fourth quarter against some stifling Miami defense.

The Heat were playing with a sense of desperation in that contest as has become their wont in Game 2s with LeBron James after going down 0-1 in a series, as they improved to 6-0 straight up in that circumstance, and they may have a difficult time matching that intensity now that they accomplished their goal of winning a game on the road to seize home court advantage, especially with only one day between games that was used to fly from the Alamo to South Beach.

In fact the shoe is now on the other foot and it is the Spurs that are desperate to reclaim that home advantage with a road win, but the difference between these two teams is that while Miami usually responds to “must-wins” with improved intensity on defense, the Spurs usually react on the offensive end by playing faster than their usual already fast pace under Coach Gregg Popovich, who is a proponent of playing fast and catching unset defenses on their heels.

And despite the low overall field goal percentage in Game 2, the Spurs continued to shoot three-pointers well going 12-for-26, 46.2 percent from beyond the arc. Remember that San Antonio did lead the NBA in three-point percentage at 39.7 percent, and the Spurs’ fast pace often leads to great three-point looks with defenses usually scrambling around trying to match up.

The Heat shot 52.7 percent in Game 2 and would have scored considerably more than 98 points if not for 16 turnovers and only five offensive rebounds. They now have a good chance to improve in both of those areas with the return home to Miami, and the Heat are versatile enough to be able to score points when they have to, and they probably know that they will to match San Antonio’s expected improved offensive output over Sunday night.

This Game 3 could be a barn-burner not settled on the court until the final possessions, but we do like both teams to produce enough to go ‘over’ in Miami on Tuesday.

[gameodds]5/295577/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Spurs, Heat ‘over’ 197½ (-101)