NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 20, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Tuesday, May. 20, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Tuesday.

Look for a second consecutive ‘over’ in the Eastern Conference Finals Tuesday night when the second seeded Miami Heat (62-30, 25-21 away) pay a visit to the top seeded Indiana Pacers (65-31, 39-10 home) for Game 2 from Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN at 8:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN with the Pacers leading the series 1-0.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 184½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -107.

Remember that it was the second seeded Heat who were the prohibitive favorites to win this series as well as chalk in Game 1, but it was the Pacers that drew first blood with a high-scoring 107-96 win that obliterating the posted total of 182. Now, this contest may not be quite as high scoring as that contest, but we still feel it will be higher scoring that this posted total as we do not think this number is adjusted enough for what we saw in Game 1.

And what we saw in the series opener was both teams shoot the ball well with Indian hitting 51.5 percent of its field goals and Miami shooting 51.3 percent. Will that kind of shooting continue? We have our doubts about the Pacers topping 50 percent again with this game meaning more to the Heat, but we could easily see the Heat matching or better yet topping that shooting performance while trying to avoid an 0-2 hole, and that may be enough for a fairly low total.

Believe it or not, the ‘over’ is now surprisingly 12-6 in the last 18 head-to-head meetings between these teams, as the more memorable games of this series have been tough defensive affairs, but apparently those games were played to deflated totals where even though the games were not shootouts, the teams did enough to sneak ‘over’. And that could be a precursor for tonight, as opposed to a type of game like Game 1 that soared ‘over’ the low total.

The Heat have responded to series deficits almost every time since LeBron James came to South Beach four years ago, and we do not doubt that the Heat will pit forth an intense effort tonight. Now admittedly, much of that will show up on the defensive end after an embarrassing performance on that side of the court in the opener.

However, for the purposes of this ‘over’, we think that the Heat will make up for that offensively, as remember they scored 96 points in Game 1 with Chris Bosh scoring only nine points on 4-for-12 shooting. Dwayne Wade looked like all the games off he had during the regular season did him a world of good as he actually led the Heat in scoring with 27 points while LeBron had 25.

If the Big Three all play their normal games tonight, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that they will not with the Heat facing an 0-1 series deficit, the we can easily see Miami surpassing the century mark in this game.

Granted, the Pacers do not figure to match their scoring output from Game 1, but if we are right about the Heat, the Indiana would only need to score in the mid to upper 80s to push this game ‘over’, and we could certainly see that happening.

Remember that when the Pacers have suffered some embarrassing home losses during these playoffs vs. lesser competition than the Heat, the reason has been a lack of defensive intensity, and Indiana was probably not happy with allowing 96 points even while winning on Sunday, as that was the highest scoring game of any of Indiana’s nine wins this post-season.

The point is that even if the Pacer offense goes into hibernation again, the combination of lax Indiana defense and motivated Miami offense should be more that enough to allow the Heat to score enough points that Indiana has a bit of a buffer in regards to what is the Pacers need to score for this game to go ‘over’.

Thus, while the final combined score may not be as high as it was in Game 1, still look for another ‘over’ in Game 2 from Indianapolis on Tuesday.

[gameodds]5/291354/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Heat, Pacers ‘over’ 184½ (-107)

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