NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, May 15, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Thursday.

Although the top seeds in the Eastern Conference have lacked consistency the last several months, look for their defense to rise up as it often has in key playoff moments Thursday and help key an ‘under’ when those Indiana Pacers (63-31, 25-21 away) pay a visit to the fifth seeded Washington Wizards (50-42, 23-22 home) for Game 6 of their Eastern Conference semifinal from the Verizon Center in Washington, DS at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 181½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Pacers finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference, but they have certainly been enigmatic over the second half of the year and the playoffs. Just when it seemed the Pacer team that may have been the best team in the NBA before the All-Star break had returned while winning three straight games in this series after losing Game 1, the “second half” Pacers reared their ugly heads in a 102-79 loss at home with a chance to end this series on Tuesday.

Thus the Pacers now lead this series 3-2 and must now go on the road where they again attempt to end this series and this time avoid having to play a Game 7 where anything can happen. Then again, do the Wizards really want to be home for this game considering they are just 23-22 straight up this year in the Verizon Center combining regular season and playoffs compared to 27-20 on the road?

That odd disparity has been even more pronounced in the playoffs where the Wizards’ unexpected blowout win in Indiana in Game 5 leaves them at 5-1 straight up and 6-0 ATS on the road this post-season compared to 1-3 both straight up and ATS here at home! While there is certainly a discernable pattern there considering it extends back through the entire regular season, we are not prepared to make any wagers based solely on that oddity.

However, we do believe that the “good” Pacers show up tonight in an effort to avoid a Game 7, and one constant throughout these playoffs as well as through most of the regular season has been that when Indiana has come to play, it has been categorized by stiff defense and low scoring games.

And the Wizards are no strangers to that defense as the three lowest scoring games by the Wizards this entire year have all come vs. the Pacers! Two of those games came in regular season losses in Indianapolis where Washington lost by scores of 93-66 and 93-73. The third ugly effort came here at home in Game 3 of this series when the Wizards shot 32.9 percent in an 85-63 defeat for their lowest scoring game of the year yet.

In fact, if you look at the seven wins that the Pacers have had this post-season, they have averaged a combined 174.3 points with the ‘under’ going 6-1! The lone ‘over’ came in Game 4 of this series, but that was not exactly a score-fest either with the teams combining for 187 points.

Since we expect the Pacers to come to play tonight, we reasonably expect another low scoring affair as the Wizards have looked simply helpless offensively when Indiana has been at its best defensively. Also, the Pacers have continued to struggle offensively even in the games that they have won, which is another reason why we are more partial to the ‘under’ here than to the Indiana side, although we certainly do not feel that the Pacers plus points are a bad play either.

But as for our official play here, we recommend going ‘under’ the total in Game 6 from Washington on ESPN Thursday.

[gameodds]5/286097/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Pacers, Wizards ‘under’ 181½ (-105)