NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, May 18, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Sunday.

There could be a mild upset in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday when LeBron James and the Miami Heat (62-29, 25-20 away) pay a visit to those Indiana Pacers (64-31, 38-10 home) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN at 3:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ABC.

The point spread at Bet365 has Indiana as a modest home underdog for this contest with the current line at +2½ with odds of -115.

It is easy to forget that the Pacers finished as the top seeds in the East this season and thus have home court advantage in this series, especially when you consider that they are bigger than +300 underdogs to win this series and are home dogs here in Game 1. The reason for that of course is because the Pacers have been dreadful for the most part since the All-Star break, although to their credit they did rise up when they had to while winning their first two series.

Also there is the usual sense that the Heat just coasted through the regular season and are now peaking at the perfect time, not unlike the last three years since the arrival of LeBron when Miami had nondescript regular seasons and then reached the NBA Finals every year. To wit, remember that the Heat got swept in their four regular season meetings with the Brooklyn Nets and then beat them in five games in the conference semifinals to reach this point.

Now, we tend to agree that the Heat will eventually win this series and are Finals-bound once again, but for this Game 1, it would not surprise us one bit if the seemingly disrespected Pacers once again rise up and resemble the great team of the first half of this season that may have been the best in the NBA.

And that team has surfaced eight times so far in these playoffs while beating the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards, although admittedly the “bad” Pacer team of the second half of the season showed up for all the other games including some bad blowout losses here at home. Still, we cannot imagine the “good” Pacers not showing up for this game and for this entire series with so much at stake.

And remember that those good Pacers won both meetings vs. the Heat here in Indiana this season while holding Miami to two of its lowest point totals of the season with 83 and 84 points respectively.

The Heat have lost just one game this post-season with that being Game 3 vs. the Nets in Brooklyn last round, but we still get the feeling that this team has more left in the tank and that Miami has not yet played its best game of these playoffs.

With that said however, we may not see that in Game 1 either with the Pacers probably having a tad more motivation while wanting to silence their many critics, so we see Indiana being the team playing with greater emotion today. On the flip side, it would not surprise us at all if they play with so much intensity that they will have little left for the next game, so we do not think it is far-fetched for Indiana to win Game 1 and then for the Hear to win the next four games!

But first things first, as we recommend a play on Indiana as a home underdog in Game 1 on Sunday.

[gameodds]5/291352/?r-1=43-238-92-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Pacers +2½ (-115)