NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, May 4, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Sunday.

It has been a great first round of the NBA Playoffs with a record five series reaching seven games, and points should be plentiful in the final game on Sunday as the Dallas Mavericks (52-36, 24-20 away) pay a visit to the top seeded San Antonio Spurs (65-23, 24-10 home) in Game 7 from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX at 3:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ABC.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 197½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.

Much like the Pacers vs. Hawks series in the Eastern Conference, this has not been you typical one-seed vs. eight-seed series matchup with the eighth seeded Mavericks going 6-0 ATS so far this series. Unlike the other series though, this one has been chock full of high-scoring affairs, and we expect nothing less in Game 7 today.

Then again, high-scoring games are nothing new for a Dallas team that finished eighth in the NBA in scoring this season at 104.8 points per game while simultaneously ranking 20th in points against at 102.4 per contest. The Spurs were even better offensively, ranking sixth at 105.4 points, but a key reason why the Spurs finished with the best record in the NBA is because the defense did its part, finishing sixth while allowing 97.6 points per game.

However, the Mavericks are not impressed as they have been one team that the San Antonio defense has been unable to solve all season, as Dallas is now averaging 101.5 points in 10 meetings vs. San Antonio combining the regular season and playoffs! The latest explosion came in a 113-111 win in Game 6 on Friday which forced this penultimate Game 7, and that brought the ‘over’ to 7-3 in the 10 meetings with the Mavericks topping 100 points seven times.

Even better news for Dallas is that Dirk Nowitzki has come alive with 26 and 22 points respectively in the last two contests after being held below 20 points in the first four games of this series, complimenting Monta Ellis, who has topped 20 points in the last five games. In fact Dallas had six players score in double figures Friday including three players off the bench in Vince Carter, Devin Harris and DeJuan Blair, with the latter returning after missing Game 5.

Dallas shot 51.7 percent for the game, but the Mavs were rather fortunate to escape with the win as they allowed the Spurs to shoot 53.3 percent. That has been par for the course in this head-to-head series with the Spurs averaging 105.2 points in the 10 meetings, topping 100 points seven times.

With this being Game 7, look for the Spurs to draw on their vast post-season experience and be on top of their game, and when that happens they are capable of hitting 110 points considering the difficulties the Dallas defense has had all year and considering San Antonio finished second in the league in shooting percentage at 48.6 percent while leading in three-point shooting at 39.7 percent.

The Spurs finished sixth in the NBA in offensive efficiency, grading out at a nice 108.2 points per 100 possessions, and they put up 109 points (but allowed 103) the last time these teams were in San Antonio for Game 5.

Look for yet another entertaining high scoring game to close out this series from San Antonio on Sunday.

[gameodds]5/285562/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Mavericks, Spurs ‘over’ 197½ (-110)