NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, April 27, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Sunday.

Expect a relatively low scoring game in a pivotal Game 4 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs Sunday night when the Toronto Raptors (49-36, 22-20 away) pay a visit to the Brooklyn Nets (46-39, 29-13 home) at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY at 7:05 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT, with the Nets leading the series 2-1.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 192 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

The Toronto media dubbed the series a match of “Raptors vs. Dinosaurs” before it began as a dig at the Nets’ age, but those “old men” promptly stole Game 1 on the road and then held serve returning home for Game 3. If the Nets can do that again at home tonight, it would give them a commanding 3-1 series lead.

The Raptors did appear to have plenty of fight left in them Friday night though, as they trailed by 15 points with a shade over four minutes remaining and cut that deficit to one with less than one minute left, with the aid of some questionable decisions by the Nets and some sloppy Brooklyn shooting.

That 102-98 Nets’ win marked the second straight ‘over’ in this series after Game 1 went safely ‘under’, but each of the last two games had rather fluky fourth quarters to help those ‘overs’ along. First, Toronto scored 36 points in the fourth quarter of Game 2, which was its season-high for any quarter, with the teams combining for 65 points that final stanza. Then, the improbable comeback in Game 3 resulted in late game fouling to help put that game ‘over’.

Assuming nothing out of the ordinary happens this time around, we expect this game to more closely resemble Game 1, when only 181 points were scored in the 94-87 Brooklyn win. After all, because they are “dinosaurs” if you will, the Nets ranked 25th in the NBA in pace rating during the regular season, naturally leading to low scores on both ends of the floor.

Brooklyn finished 21st in the NBA in scoring despite ranking in the top half of the league in field goal percentage in 12th at 45.9 percent, obviously because it got off fewer shots per game than most NBA teams. Similarly, the Nets finished 11th in the NBA in points against at 99.5 per game, a ranking more enhanced by playing so slow than by actually playing stiff defense, as the Nets were 17th in field goal percentage allowed.

Now, the Raptors would prefer to play a bit more up-tempo, but regardless, they also have a rather underrated defense that finished seventh in the league in points against at 98.0 per game and 10th in field goal percentage allowed. That helped Toronto rank a very respectable ninth in the league in defensive efficiency.

The playoff inexperience of the Raptors relative to the Nets has been more obvious on the offensive end where their All-Star DeMar DeRozan has played out of control at times while trying to do too much. Now Toronto is faced with a game it needs to basically save its season and there is no telling how its scorers will react the first time most of them has ever been in this situation.

With all of this in mind, let us go ‘under’ in Game 4 from Brooklyn on Sunday.

[gameodds]5/264187/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Raptors, Nets ‘under’ 192 (-110)