NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, May 24, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Saturday.

After a low scoring affair in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, look for a bit more scoring Saturday night when the top seeded Indiana Pacers (65-32, 26-21 away) pay a visit to the second seeded Miami Heat (63-30, 37-9 home) for Game 4 from American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL at 8:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN with the series tied 1-1.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 183 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -102.

The first two games of this series could not have been more different in terms of pace. Both teams shot better than 51 percent in Game 1 with the Pacers prevailing 107-96 in a game that sailed ‘over’ the posted total, which was only 182. The Heat never had a lead in that contest while the Pacers built a lead of up to 19 points at one point while cruising to victory.

Miami then captured the road game that they needed to seize away home court advantage in this series in a significantly lower scoring Game 2 by just an 87-83 score, as unlike Game 1, there were many lead changes throughout the game with neither team getting a lead of more than eight points. The Heat actually shot 50.7 percent in that contest, but the Miami defense stepped up by limiting the Pacers to 40.0 percent shooting on 32-for-80 from the field.

So how will the offenses fare in Game 3? Well, while we do not feel that the performance by the Miami defense in Game 2 was fluky at all, we do expect the Pacers to put a few more points on the board tonight, although not nearly as much as in their opening game. It helps that Paul George has been cleared to play after suffering a concussion on Tuesday, although his effectiveness today might be brought to question.

As for the Heat, their shooting was just fine in Game 2 but they committed 13 turnovers and allowed the Pacers to get off 13 more shot attempts, no thanks to being out-rebounded on the offensive glass 16-6. One big difference was that Miami only scored 32 points in the paint in Game 2 after scoring 54 in the opener, but we expect that total to be closer to the Game 1 amount tonight with the Heat now coming home.

In other words, we see this final combined total to fall somewhere in between the totals of the first two games, but this posted total is low enough to have us feel it ends on the higher side of the total.

An added variable here is that we would not be at all surprised if the Heat opened up a big lead Saturday now that they have taken away home court advantage, as they will likely put their foot down from the outset here not wanting to give that advantage right back in their quest for a fourth consecutive NBA Finals appearance.

That could lead to some late “garbage time” with the play getting sloppier on both sides, which often leads to easy buckets that have ruined much higher totals than this one from an ‘under’ perspective.

Add this all up and look for this game to crack the 190s, thus going ‘over’ this total in Miami in Game 3 Saturday.

[gameodds]5/291356/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Pacers, Heat ‘over’ 183 (-102)