NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, May 10, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Saturday.

After a string of high-scoring games involving the team with the best record in the NBA, the total may be overly adjusted Saturday, thus actually giving value to the ‘under’ when those San Antonio Spurs (68-23, 31-13 away) pay a visit to the fifth seeded Portland Trail Blazers (58-32, 33-11 home) for Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals from the Moda Center in Portland, OR at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN. The Spurs lead the series 2-0.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 208½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -109.

The Spurs have flexed their muscles to begin this series with two blowout wins at home by 24 and 17 points respectively, shooting a blistering 52.0 percent from the field over the two games going 48-for-90 overall! That includes going an amazing 19-for-36, 52.8 percent from beyond the three-point arc in the series so far. Thus, San Antonio has the look for a team that wants to make quick work of Portland after getting extended to seven games by Dallas.

The Trail Blazers have therefore lost all of the momentum they had after winning an exhilarating six-game series vs. Houston where three of the games went into overtime and Portland won the series with a one-point win in Game 6 in regulation on a three-point bucket by Damian Lillard at the final buzzer in an instant classic.

The Spurs have now played to five consecutive ‘overs’ going back to the Dallas series while scoring a minimum of 109 points in all five contests and averaging a whopping 113.8 points during this stretch. However, that is now being reflected in this total, which is higher than any posted total during the five-game streak.

It is also worth noting that four of those five games were back home in San Antonio, and the veteran Spurs may not be as crisp offensively for at least the first half of this game following a long flight to Portland with only one day off since Game 2 on Thursday.

Yes San Antonio had the best road record in the NBA during the regular season at 30-11, but just as significant in regards to this total is that their road games have averaged a combined total of 202.5 points this year combining the regular season and playoffs, which is six points less than this posted total.

The San Antonio defense has resurfaced the first two games after basically taking the Dallas series off and that is a somewhat underrated unit that ranked sixth in the NBA in points against and eighth in field goal percentage allowed during the regular season. The Blazers followed up their woeful 37.8 percent shooting performance in Game 1 by shooting a better 43.0 percent in Game 2, but that was still well off Portland’s shooting average for the season of 45.0 percent.

Now, the Blazers may come out on fire here now that they are in desperation mode and get to have their home fans buoying them on, but they may fatigue late while basically playing 5-on-10 over the course of the game. That is because this series is a matchup between a Portland bench that ranked dead last in the NBA this year in bench scoring with 24.7 points per game and a San Antonio bench that led the NBA in bench scoring with 45.1 points!

With San Antonio possibly sluggish offensively in the first half and Portland possibly losing its collective legs in the fourth quarter, let us go ‘under’ this inflated total in Game 3 from Oregon on Saturday.

[gameodds]5/286087/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Spurs, Blazers ‘under’ 208½ (-109)