NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, April 26, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 26, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Saturday.

The top seeds in the Western Conference look to rebound from a home loss Saturday when those San Antonio Spurs (63-21, 30-11 away) pay a visit to the Dallas Mavericks (50-34, 26-15 home) for Game 3 of their NBA Playoffs first round series from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX at 4:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT. This series is now tied 1-1.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has San Antonio as a road favorite for this contest with the current line at -3½ with odds of -103.

The Mavericks were able to snap a 10-game head-to-head losing streak vs. the Spurs to even up the series in Game 2, as they came out with a lot of energy while San Antonio did not, and the Mavericks went on to a surprisingly easy 113-92 rout with 33 of their points coming off of 24 turnovers by a Spurs’ team that seemed to lack focus.

Thus Dallas wrestled away the home court advantage in this series, but that in itself is not cause for celebration as the Spurs were an outstanding 30-11 on the road during the regular season and remember that San Antonio still has a four-game winning streak here in Dallas after sweeping the Mavericks during the regular season both this year and last year.

The Spurs did not go 62-20 during the regular season by accident either, easily posting the best record in the NBA, so we will chalk up that ugly Game 2 performance to overconfidence after winning Game 1 as San Antonio knows that it is the better team here and that loss will not hurt the Spurs provided they win at least one if not both of these next two games in Dallas.

And we feel that win comes today in rather emphatic fashion as the Spurs should be anxious to prove that Game 2 was just a fluke and they probably want to immediately squash any hope Dallas has of winning this series. Besides, it is not as if the Spurs played that poorly offensively besides all of those turnovers as they did shoot 50.0 percent from the field going 32-for-64 in Game 2.

San Antonio was rather lack defensively however allowing Dallas to shoot 48.9 percent, and all the San Antonio turnovers allowed the Mavericks to get off 28 more shot attempts as they went 45-92. As long as the Spurs tighten up defensively, and they did rank sixth in the NBA in points against this season, and limit their turnovers like the usually do, they should be able to easily prove that Game 2 was an anomaly.

The Mavericks may have finally caught break on Wednesday, but that was probably not enough to forget the dominance that San Antonio had over them in the previous 10 meetings and Dallas knows as well as anyone that the Spurs do not figure to turn the ball over 24 times again.

And there is the rub because Dallas does not figure to be able to do much to stop the San Antonio offense when the Spurs do not stop themselves, as the Mavs finished 20th in the NBA in points against at 102.4 per game and 22nd in field goal percentage allowed at 46.4 percent. They must now deal with a Spurs’ team that finished second in the league in field goal percentage overall at 48.6 percent and that led the NBA in three-point shooting.

Expect a cleaner game by the Spurs as they should be able to score at will, leading to a safe handy victory in Game 3 in Dallas on Saturday.


NBA Pick: Spurs -3½ (-103)

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