NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, May 26, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Monday, May. 26, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Monday.

Expect a fairly tight, defensive struggle in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals Monday night when the Indiana Pacers (65-33, 26-22 away) again pay a visit to the Miami Heat (64-30, 38-9 home) at American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL at 8:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN with the Heat leading the series 2-1

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 183 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Pacers are the number one seed in this series and thus they were the team that earned home court advantage, but after taking advantage of a seemingly indifferent Heat team in Game 1, second seeded Miami has since shown why it was nearly a -400 favorite to win this series before it began despite not having home court advantage.

First the Heat did what they had to do by winning Game 2 on the road to take away Indiana’s home court edge, as after Miami allowed the Pacers to shoot 51.5 percent in the 107-96 Game 1 loss, the Heat defense really buckled down by limiting Indiana to shoot just 40.0 percent while stealing the second game 87-83 and seizing home court.

The Heat then withstood a great Indiana start in Game 3 that saw the Pacers lead by as much as 15 points in the first half before Miami asserted itself in the second half en route to the 99-87 triumph, giving the Heat a chance to take a real stranglehold of this series with another home win tonight. The Pacers cooled off considerably after that hot start in Game 3, as they ended up shooting 47.7 percent for the game.

While that is still good, 19 Indiana turnovers helped account for the low 87-point output, as did grabbing only six offensive rebounds for the game after dominating in that department in the first two games in Indiana.

In the end, we were extremely fortunate to cash our ticket on the ‘over’ 183½ on Saturday, as the teams combined for just 35 points in the first quarter and 80 points in the first half, and we would have lost if not for a “meaningless” three-point bucket by George Hill on the Pacers’ final shot with 23 seconds left as the Heat then dribbled out the clock.

Tonight’s contest has practically the same posted total, only this time we are looking for the teams to stay below it. We expect the Heat defense to continue to do what it has done the last two games, but we look for an improved effort from the Indiana defense after allowing Miami to shoot better than 51 percent for the third straight game in Game 3.

You see, whenever the Pacers have faced a crisis this post-season, their defense has risen up every time to this point, the same defense that finished second in the NBA in points against during the regular season at 92.3 per game while leading the league in field goal percentage allowed at just 42.0 percent and ranking fourth in three-point defense.

Now we get that the Heat represent a humongous jump in class from the teams Indiana rose up against in the first two rounds, and in fact we think that Indiana even playing at its best will come up short here. Still, we do expect a much closer game than Game 3 with both teams bringing it on defense, as we expect this contest to most closely resemble the 87-83 triumph by the Heat in Game 2 in terms of pace.

We are not comfortable with either side here with the current line of around Miami -6 seeming right on with Indiana expected to bring its best effort in an attempt to save its season, but we do like the ‘under’ quite a bit in Game 4 from South Beach on Memorial Day Monday.

[gameodds]5/291358/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Pacers, Heat ‘under’ 183 (-105)

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