NBA Pick: NBA Playoff Play of the Day Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, May 12, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, LT Profits Sports seeks that one single playoff play that has the best chance of cashing. Here is their Playoff Play of the Day Monday.

While every game of this series has gone ‘over’, none of the games have had a posted total as high as Monday night when the San Antonio Spurs (69-23, 32-13 away) go for the four-game sweep as they again pay a visit to the Portland Trail Blazers (58-33, 33-12 home) for Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal from the Moda Center in Portland, OR at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 210½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -107.

After being taken to seven games in their first round series with the Dallas Mavericks, the Spurs may want some more rest before the Western Conference Finals begin as they are on the verge of sweeping this series tonight, and the first three wins have not even been close with San Antonio winning by 24 and 17 points respectively at home and then by 15 points here in Portland on Saturday.

Aside from the winning streak, all three games of this series have gone ‘over’ and the Spurs are now on a six-game ‘over’ streak going back to the last three Dallas games. That usually means bad business for the sportsbooks as the playoffs usually bring out the most casual of basketball fans and many novices enjoy betting the ‘over’ simply because they want to see high scoring games.

The books have kept increasing the posted totals in this series in an attempt to combat that, and we actually saw value in betting the ‘under’ on the NBA odds at 208½ in Game 3 Saturday, which did not turn out well when the Spurs won 118-103 to take their 3-0 series lead. Undaunted, we are coming right back with the ‘under’ at this even better number in Game 4, a game where the Blazers may actually want this one more in order to at least save some face.

If you recall, many experts predicted that Portland could win this series, and even most of those that selected the Spurs felt that this would be a long, tough series. Instead it has been a walk in the park for San Antonio because the Portland defense has not made many stops and the Blazers are trying to win this series with their five starters playing huge minutes while the Spurs can go 10-deep with the best bench in the NBA.

For this one game though, we look for the Blazers to give their best effort in the series, and they probably know by now that they need to slow the pace down to give themselves the best chance at stealing one game, as not only have the Blazers played right into the Spurs’ hands by playing the type of fast-paced games that San Antonio loves, but also playing slower tonight would help conserve the energy of the Portland starters, keeping them fresher for the fourth quarter.

The Spurs made their statement in Game 3 when, seemingly unaffected by the long flight to Portland after just one day off following Game 2, San Antonio got off to a fast start scoring 28 points in the first quarter and leading 60-40 at halftime and were never headed. Now sure, San Antonio would not mind completing the sweep, but the Spurs also know in back of their minds that even if they lose here, they would almost certainly wrap up the series at home Game 5.

Thus if Portland does attempt to slow this game down a bit, do not expect San Antonio to exert any extra energy in an attempt to speed the Blazers up. Besides, the Spurs have not needed to do anything special while defending the Blazers quite well in this series, limiting them to 41.3 percent shooting over the first three games including just 36 field goals the entire game on 84 attempts here on Saturday.

Add all this up and we expect Game 4 to be the lowest scoring game of this series so go ‘under’ the inflated total in Portland on Monday.

[gameodds]5/286091/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Spurs, Blazers ‘under’ 210½ (-107)