NBA Pick on Money Line Underdog: Celtics +135 vs. Hornets

Charles Stark

Monday, March 30, 2015 1:24 PM GMT

We go to Charlotte today for our daily predicted NBA odds upset special. I am taking the Boston Celtics on the plus money line in this spot, read more here and add them to your NBA picks.

Playoff Push
Boston and Charlotte are both in playoff contention for the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference.  Today, with Boston coming off a back to back the Hornets are favored by -4 by NBA odds makers.  This number looks about right to me on first look, and it is easy to see the reasoning behind making Charlotte the favorite, the Hornets have to be simply for the fact they are at home and are 2-1 against the Celtics this year.  After some digging though I like the way Boston is playing overall these past few weeks and I am looking at them to come in and get the minor upset.  This game is big to both teams.

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Going Deeper After the Break
Since the All Star break both Boston and Charlotte have not been setting any worlds on fire shooting 42.6% and 42.7% respectively from the field.  Boston does push pace a bit more and are averaging 100 points per game compared to the Hornets 97 in that same time frame, not a big difference.  From beyond the arc since the break the Celtics are around 33% while the Hornets are at 34%, again not a big difference.  I like the fact though that Boston attempts a lot more 3’s at 26.7 to Charlotte’s 18.8 per game, naturally they have made more at 8.8 per game against the Hornets 6.5, that is a bit of a difference.  Although Boston is coming off of no rest in their game yesterday to the Clips, interestingly enough though the Celtics offensive stats actually go up on zero days rest shooting above 44% from the field and above 35% from beyond the arc.

 

Recently
The Clippers have been rolling right now so I don’t put a lot of weight on Boston losing to them.  Prior to that game the last three games Boston has played solid defense allowing only 41.1% from the field which was ranked 4th in the league during that time frame. Charlotte was just a step back from them allowing 41.4%.  We see a much bigger difference in shots from beyond the arc though.  In that same time frame Boston has led the league in opponent three point shooting percentage at 26.2%.  The Hornets however have been bad in defending that area allowing 39% from distance in that same time frame.  For a team that likes to shoot the three as much as the Celtics this could be an issue.  The Hornets have done a better job than Boston the last few games in controlling the ball, getting more assists and having fewer turnovers than the Celtics.  Overall rebounds have been about the same.

Upon reflection of more stats this line now starts to bother me.  It seems with the no rest and having to hit the road the NBA odds makers would make Boston a bit more of a dog than they are currently at +4.  I think the odds makers are in the position where Charlotte must be favored but actually this game could either way, which I believe reflects the number.   I am a big fan of Brad Stevens and I think they should come in well prepared to continue their push towards the playoff and get a huge road win.  For your NBA pick, take the plus money line with confidence, the Celtics will come ready to play.

NBA Pick: Boston +135 at BetOnline