NBA Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves, Atlanta Hawks ‘over’ 185½

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, January 21, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jan. 21, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

The Hawks have a huge home vs. away disparity in terms of scoring this season while the Timberwolves have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this month. Go ‘over’.

Expect a high scoring affair in a special Martin Luther King Day matinee on Monday when the Minnesota Timberwolves (17-20, 6-14 away) pay a visit to the Atlanta Hawks (22-18, 13-7 home) at Philips Arena in Atlanta, GA at 2:05 ET.

The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 185½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.

The Hawks are exactly one week removed from almost setting an all time low for fewest points in a game in franchise history in a 97-58 loss to the Chicago Bulls, and they have been held below 90 points in six of their last 10 games overall. However, five of those occurrences came in their six road games during this current span, and the only time they topped 90 points on the road recently was when they put up 103 points at Minnesota vs. tonight’s opponents!

Besides facing a Timberwolves team that they have already shown they can score on regardless of the venue, the Hawks are also thankfully home for this contest, where they have been much more offensively efficient. In fact, their home/away disparity is rather glaring.

Starting with their overall numbers, the Hawks are ranked 17th in the league with 95.6 points per game and 11th in field goal percentage at 45.4 percent. However, Atlanta averages a much healthier 99.7 points here at home where the ‘over’ is 12-8, 60.0 percent. For a case in point, in the very next game after scoring 58 points at Chicago, the Hawks retuned home and had 56 points in the first half alone en route to a 109-95 win over the Brooklyn Nets.

That is in stark contrast to Atlanta’s play on the road, where it averages only 91.4 points with the ‘under’ going 13-7.

That home success of the Atlanta offense should continue today because few teams in the NBA have played worst defense than the Timberwolves this month, especially on the road, and the Timberwolves had the look of a team that has quit since Kevin Love re-fractured his hand to keep him out of action until March, at least until Minnesota snapped a five-game losing streak at home vs. the Houston Rockets on Saturday.

The Timberwolves have allowed over 100 points in four straight road games and in five of their six January road games so far while allowing an ugly 105.3 points per game away from home since the calendar flipped over to 2013! Minnesota has been especially weak defending three-pointers this month and that is one thing that the Hawks do well offensively, ranking seventh in the NBA in three-point percentage at 37.5 percent.

The biggest threat to this ‘over’ is the Minnesota offense, but that unit got an unexpected boost in the upset of the Rockets when Chris Johnson and Mickael Gelabale, both signed to 10-day contracts the morning of the game on Saturday, combined to score the first 23 points of the fourth quarter.

This posted total is low enough for this game to go ‘over’ with Minnesota not really needing to score much more than 90 points on Monday.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves, Hawks ‘over’ 185½ (-110)

comment here