NBA Pick: Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets ‘over’ 195½

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, March 15, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Mar. 15, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

No team in the NBA has been able to slow down a Nuggets team that has topped 100 points in 24 out of 25 games, and look for Denver to force the pace at home vs. the Grizzlies.

In an interesting matchup between the hottest offense in the NBA and the league leader in points against on Friday night, the plodding Memphis Grizzlies (44-19, 19-11 away) pay a visit to the run-and-gun Denver Nuggets (44-22, 29-3 home) at the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO at 9:05 ET.

The posted total at 5 Dimes is 195½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -105.

The Nuggets are coming off of a 117-94 demolition of the New York Knicks on Wednesday, marking the 24th time in the last 25 games that Denver has topped 100 points while averaging an obscene 111.7 points over those contests!

That leaves the Nuggets third in the NBA in scoring with 106.0 points per game overall, an average that climbs three full points to 109.0 points here in the altitude of home, where their great depth really allows them to run teams not used to the elevation off the floor in the fourth quarter.

A lot of Denver’s damage comes in transition as the Nuggets rank fourth in the league on field goal percentage at 47.9 percent but are just 25th in three-point shooting at 34.7 percent. They more than make up for their suspect perimeter shooting though by ranking second in the league in pace rating behind only the Houston Rockets. Denver does not have one true superstar, but can get production 10-deep, which is why the Nuggets can run from start to finish.

This is also a big game in regards to playoff implications as the fifth seeded Nuggets trail the fourth seeded Grizzlies by just one game in the West, which is crucial with the fourth seed having home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It is obvious that nobody would want to face Denver if the Nuggets do earn that home court, as they are 29-3 in this building for the second best home record in the NBA, just one-half game behind the Miami Heat (30-3).

Now the Grizzlies are the polar opposite of the Nuggets stylistically as Memphis is ranked 28th out of 30 teams in pace rating, but the end result has been a 44-19 record following a nice 96-85 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. The Grizzlies also lead the NBA in points against at 89.4 per game and they even held the Nuggets below 100 points in all three meetings this season with all of those games staying ‘under’.

Keep in mind though that all three of those meetings took place before New Year’s Day, well before the Nuggets went on the seemingly unstoppable offensive roll they are on now. Also, with no disrespect intended toward the Memphis defense, one of the reasons it does not allow many points is the aforementioned slow pace that the Grizzlies play at.

Well, we do not expect Memphis to slow down the Nuggets as well as it did in the three early-season meetings tonight, especially with this game in Denver. Also, even the Memphis offense has improved as the year has gone on and the Grizzlies are averaging 99.3 points in their last six games.

Look for the Nuggets to force the tempo in the altitude and for this game to sail ‘over’ on Friday.


NBA Pick: Grizzlies, Nuggets ‘over’ 195½ (-105)

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