NBA Pick: Mavericks with Valuable Odds to Upset Rockets in Game 5

Nikki Adams

Monday, April 27, 2015 2:08 PM GMT

Dallas finally got into the win column & extend their series with the Rockets. Can the Mavs make it 2 in a row or will the Rockets finally finish the job. Here's our predictions with NBA picks.

Dallas Mavericks (1-3, 0-2 away)
Dallas head to Houston for game 5, after staving off elimination at home behind a 121-109 win that saw them upset the NBA odds as the +135 underdogs and, in turn, cover as the 3-point pups. There they hope to extend their NBA Playoffs campaign and send the series into game 6.

Facing almost imminent elimination, the pressure was on and the Mavs delivered brilliantly. One could argue beyond expectations as they were technically the home underdogs across sports betting platforms. A reaction to the outcome of the previous game in which they failed to come through as the home favourites, thereby handing the Rockets a commanding 3-0 edge in the series. A near certain ticket into the next round.

To be fair, the Mavs played their hearts out in game 3 and only lost the game ever so narrowly. It was just the difference of two points when all was said and done. They weren't beaten in the overwhelming sense of the word. Luck simply didn't go their way.

Clearly, that must have been an observation echoed in the locker room because they didn't let it get them down on Sunday. Rather they went back to work. And didn't it work out beautifully as they trounced the Rockets 121-109.

The outcome was combination of several things, namely some key changes in the line up and the elevated play from key starters. Coach Rick Carlisle inserted J.J. Barea into the line up, who turned out to be a fruitful complement to Monta Ellis. The pair combined for 48 points on the night and along with Al-Farouq Aminu's 16 points the triplet set up Mavs for what seemed (then) an unlikely game 5 in Houston.

In spite of the rousing win in Dallas on Sunday, the Mavs go into game 5 as the decided underdogs at +220 NBA odds and the huge 6.5-point road pups against the spread. Clearly, the bookies aren't buying what they are selling. But should you when making your NBA picks?

 

Houston Rockets (3-1, 2-0 home)
Houston missed an opportunity to sweep the series in Dallas on Sunday, falling instead to a hefty defeat. Although it was disappointing, credit has to be given to the Mavs for stepping up to the occasion and refusing to go down without a whimper. They were simply the better team on the given night, is all.

The Rockets were up 34-25 in the first quarter when, all of a sudden, the Mavs turned the heat on to runaway with the second quarter 36-19 and  win the first half. In the third quarter, the Mavs continued their rich vein of form to win 33-22. While the Rockets managed to take the fourth quarter 34- 27, it was a little too late. Monster games from the Mavs' starters, with all five in the double-digits, played a huge factor in Mavs' refusal to get swept aside.

The Rockets return to their stomping ground for game 5 and a chance to close out the series before their adoring fans. Home form has been a charm all season long – they are 32-11 SU (including the playoffs) and a league-leading 28-15-0 ATS, highlighted by a 5.8-margin of victory. As it is, they are installed as the massive home faves at -270 to win outright and the 6.5-point home chalk. Clearly, the Rockets are expected to right the ship in game 5. Do the bookies have it right?

Enraged Spurs Looking to Take Advantage of the Series Against Clippers in Game 5 

NBA Betting Verdict:
The odds makers got the last two games wrong, both times burned as the underdogs came through. Once again, conspicuous fence-jumping is to be had on the NBA odds board, prompting, quite rightly, NBA bettors to wonder whether the odds makers are barking up the wrong tree yet again.

 In game 3, the Rockets came through as the nominal road pups. While game 4, after the odds makers jumped fence in reaction to the outcome of game 3, the Mavs turned the odds in their favour. For game 5 the Rockets are the faves, justifiably down to home court advantage and credible stats. But this is the NBA Playoffs and the Mavs just got a postseason boost, a double-digit win over the Rockets. That has to count for something. Doesn't it?

Historical trends are against the Mavs winning this series – no team has come back to win a series after falling 3-0 down. We've said this before, but we'll say it again: while it's never happened, doesn't mean it never will. There's something about this series that lends itself to the imagination that it could. It's a tall order for the Mavs and the NBA odds are stacked against them, but we've got the balls to back them on our NBA picks for yet another upset at +220 NBA odds. Do you?

 NBA Picks: Mavs +220 and +6.5 at BetOnline

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