NBA Pick: Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings ‘under’ 216½

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, February 10, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 10, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

The Rockets play at a fast pace and the Kings have the worst defense in the NBA, but this total seeks very inflated with those factors seemingly over adjusted into the inflated total.

The ‘under’ seems to offer value in an inflated total in one of the NBA matchups Sunday night as the Houston Rockets (28-24, 28-23-1 away) pay a visit to the Sacramento Kings (18-33, 20-29-2 home) at Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, CA at 9:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 216½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Kings rank dead last in the NBA in points allowed at 103.2 per game, 27th in field goal percentage allowed and 20th in three-point defense, and yet they are on a 9-3-1 ‘under’ run right now because the offense does not always show up.

Sacramento ranks 17th in the league in points scored with 96.3 per game and 23rd in field goal percentage at 43.8 percent, and they have reached 100 points only twice in the aforementioned last 13 games. It has not helped matters that the Kings are dealing with a disgruntled fan base in Sacramento with a move to Seattle seemingly imminent.

The Kings did go off last night in a 120-109 win over the Utah Jazz, but that snapped a streak of eight straight games where Sacramento failed to reach 100 points. Also keep in mind that the Kings were playing on four days rest Saturday after not having played since Monday. The Sacramento offense has struggled this season when playing with no rest like tonight, averaging just 93.6 points on those occasions with those games totaling an average of 197.8 points.

Speaking of scoring averages, yes the Kings are averaging 101.6 points while allowing 104.5 points at home this season, but that high combined total of 206.1 points is still safely less than this bloated posted total.

Now we do get that the Rockets have been scoring machines as of late to move up to second in the NBA in scoring at 106.0 points per game and they lead the league with a pace rating of 98.6 possessions per contest. However, even when accounting for the 102.9 points per game that Houston is allowing, those 208.9 total points overall are still significantly less than this total.

The disparity is even greater in Houston road games, where the Rockets average 101.8 points and allow 102.3 points for a total of 204.1 points, which is about 12 points less than this posted number!

It is also interesting that Houston’s leading scorer and All-Star James Harden has had more difficulty vs. the Kings throughout his career than he has vs. any other team, averaging only 11.4 points on 43.2 percent against them. Finally, this is the first meeting between these teams this season and they stayed easily ‘under’ in a 104-87 Houston win in the last meeting last season right here in Sacramento.

Look for another ‘under’ at an inflated number in this head-to-head series on Sunday.

NBA Pick: Rockets, Kings ‘under’ 216½ (-105)

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