NBA Pick: Home Court Advantage Makes Capper Side With Raptors +5

Charles Stark

Saturday, May 21, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 21, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Surprisingly odds makers have come out making Cleveland just a small favorite at Toronto after they have blown out the Raptors in both games. Where's the smart NBA Pick?

The NBA Odds have come out making Toronto a +5 underdog like at Bookmaker -105. Although I have backed the Raptors both games much to my chagrin I think three times is a charm so I will take them again tonight for my NBA pick.


Toronto Raptors
In game two Toronto shot just 40% from the field and 27% from distance but only turned the ball over 12 times. It seems like they were doing what they wanted for the most part but had a really bad second quarter in which the Cavaliers outscored them 32-20, outside of that the game was pretty tight. 

If you just look at the final score it seems like Cleveland dominated the entire game, however that isn't necessarily true. Of course the biggest issue for Toronto is having Valanciunas still out as they got outrebounded 59-44 with the Cavaliers outscoring them in the paint as well 50-28.

There are a few things to consider when looking at this matchup, first of all Toronto I do not believe is as bad as the final scores have indicated and they will be at home tonight which should be a big boost. As well, the foul disparity in game two was huge with Toronto notching up 31 personal files compared to Cleveland at just 16.

And finally, the biggest issue for me is the line. This spread looks way off considering the Cavaliers are undefeated in the playoffs and have won the first two games quite easily so this game comes with the old adage if it looks good too good to be true, then… well you know.


Cleveland Cavaliers
In game two Cleveland shot 50% from the floor and 33% from distance with all of their starters in the plus of the plus minus differential. They have been so efficient in the first two games it has been mind-boggling and having your first five starters all in the plus of the differential column is quite impressive. I could go on ad infinitum about how good the Cavaliers are playing right now but it has been easy to see just watching the games.

There should be some hesitation from some people on a couple fronts in that there has been a lot of hype going on with this Cleveland team and their current run. Impressive yes, However, overconfidence could be an issue for them as this will be their first game on the road in almost 2 weeks.

Also, odds makers do not make lines frivolously and there been a few games in which the opposing team has stayed right with Cleveland until the end. In two out of their four games Detroit lost to Cleveland by five and two points, and Atlanta took them to the wire losing by one in the final game of that series. I have no doubt that Cleveland will in this series but I expect a maximum effort from Toronto back at home now to come out and play their best game of the series. It may sound crazy but don't be shocked if the Raptors pull the upset.

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Free NBA Pick:  Raptors +5 -105
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker 

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