NBA Pick on Grizzlies, Warriors to go ‘over’ in Game 5

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, May 13, 2015 3:22 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 13, 2015 3:22 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.


The team with the best record in the NBA finally looked the part in Game 4 and we may finally see our first ‘over’ of this series when the fifth seeded Memphis Grizzlies (61-30, 26-19 away) pay a visit to those Golden State Warriors (73-17, 42-3 home) for Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal from Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT, with the series tied at 2-2.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 195½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -106.

Regained Home Court Advantage
The Warriors were obviously big favorites for the series after going 67-15 during the regular season and they ran their record here in Oakland to 42-2 with their Game 1 victory. However, the Grizzlies took away home court advantage with a shocking 97-90 upset here in Game 2, and after another low scoring Grizzlies’ win at home in Game 3, the Warriors regained the home court with their 101-84 win in Memphis in Game 4 Monday.

Thus the Grizzlies blew a chance to take a series stranglehold in front of a raucous home crowd as they looked like the team feeling the pressure instead of a looses club with seemingly nothing to lose, as uncharacteristic sloppiness ruined Memphis’s chances of being upset NBA picks again once it became apparent that they would not be as successful at slowing the Warriors down as in the first three games.

Finally Ran Floor Effectively
The Warriors were the only team in the NBA to average at least 100 possessions this season, leading the league in pace rating by a considerable margin with 100.7 possessions per game. Yet, the Grizzlies had done a great job at getting games to their pace during this series, with every game going ‘under’, especially while holding the run-and-gun Warriors to 90 and 89 points respectively during the two wins.

Keep in mind that we are talking about a Golden State team that led the league in scoring (110.0 points per game), field goal percentage (47.8 percent) and three-point shooting (39.8 percent) here and a team that boasts the league MVP in Stephen Curry. It became apparent early on though that Game 4 would be different with the Warriors running better in the first quarter that they had at any point in this series, and that set the tone.

The Warriors ended up shooting 47.5 percent for the game including 42.4 percent from three-point land, and Curry played like an MVP for the first time this series with 33 points, eight rebounds and five assists.

Uncharacteristic Turnovers
Now, despite the Warriors finally looking like themselves we still had our fourth straight ‘under’ in this series in Game 4 mainly due to Memphis seemingly panicking for the first time this post-season, committing an unlikely 16 turnovers and shooting 37.5 percent from the field.

Remember that one reason the Warriors were not able to trigger their fast break consistently the first three games was because Memphis did not give them many chances to run in transition off of turnovers, and even with that Game 4 ugliness, the Grizzlies are have still committed the fewest turnovers during these playoffs although that figure is now up to 11.3 per game.

Also, while the Grizzlies are not offense juggernauts in fact ranking 20th in the NBA in scoring during the regular season with 98.3 points per game, that was mainly as a result of their tempo which left them 26th in the league on pace rating at 94.2 possessions per game. Memphis actually ranked ninth in field goal percentage at 45.8 percent, so the poor shooting on Monday was another aberration.

A more “normal” performance by Memphis combined with the Warriors running as well as they did in Game 4 while returning home here could potentially lead to the highest scoring game of this series so far.

Amazing ‘over’ Trend
Finally, remember that with the Warriors also going ‘under’ in the final game of their four-game first round sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans, it means that they have now gone ‘under’ in five straight games. Well, Golden State is on a streak that has seen the ‘over’ go 12-0 in its last 12 games following five ‘unders’!

Look for that amazing ‘over’ pattern to continue as Memphis and Golden State finally go ‘over’ in this series in Game 5 in Oakland on Wednesday.

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NBA Pick: Grizzlies, Warriors ‘over’ 195½ (-106)

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