NBA Pick: Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets ‘under’ 217

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, March 17, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

The Rockets lead the NBA in scoring, but as always happens the books have caught up to them and they are starting to go ‘under’ regularly. Expect more of the same vs. the Warriors Sunday.

In what could be a lower scoring game than the inflated total may indicate on Sunday night, the struggling Golden State Warriors (37-30, 15-20 away) pay a visit to the offensively prolific Houston Rockets (30-34, 21-11 home) at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 217 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

The Rockets are coming off of a typically high scoring 108-100 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, as they continue to lead the NBA in scoring with 106.9 points per game and in pace rating at 98.7 possessions per contest. However, as almost always happens, the sportsbooks have started to inflate Houston totals and the Rockets are no longer the ‘over’ cash cows that they were earlier in the season.

In fact it has been quite the contrary as of late, as Friday’s game vs. Minnesota stayed ‘under’ the posted total of 210 and it is the ‘under’ that is now 7-3 in the last 10 Rockets’ games! Moreover, it is not as if Houston games have been lower scoring than before, as those last 10 contests averaged a combined 210.8 points. But rather, it has become more commonplace to see Houston totals set in the 215-220 range, such as in this game tonight.

Now one game that actually was lower scoring than usual took place when these two clubs met in Oakland on March 8th in a game won by the Rockets by just a 94-88 count. That win made the Rockets 3-0 in the head-to-head meetings with the Warriors this season, which could become a critical playoff tiebreaker with these teams so close in the Western Conference standings.

The Warriors were one of the most pleasant surprises in the league for much of the season, and they are still second in the Pacific Division, albeit 8½ games behind the Los Angeles Clippers and now only two games ahead of the hard-charging Los Angeles Lakers in third place.

However, Golden State has hit a wall after a hot start, and following a 113-95 home loss to the Chicago Bulls on Friday, the Warriors are just 7-13 straight up and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games. The real story though has been the decline of what had been a potent and exciting offense.

The Warriors are still ranked ninth in the NBA in scoring at 100.6 points per game and they lead the league in three-point shooting at 39.6 percent, but they have reached 100 points just once in the last six games and only twice in the last nine contests, and their scoring average is down to 96.4 points during the month of March.

With yet another seemingly inflated Houston total here and with the Golden State offense not where it was at prior to this month, let us go ‘under’ the enormous total on Sunday.

[gameodds]5/221668/93-238-19-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Warriors, Rockets ‘under’ 217 (-110)