NBA Pick on Golden State Warriors at Home vs. Trail Blazers

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, April 9, 2015 3:16 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 9, 2015 3:16 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Thursday.


The team with the best record in the NBA looks to get back on track Thursday night as it returns home trying to avoid its longest losing streak of the season when the Portland Trail Blazers (51-27, 19-19 away) pay a visit to those Golden State Warriors (63-15, 35-2 away/neutral) at Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Golden State as a big home favorite with the current line at -9½ with odds of -105.

Two Straight Losses on Road
The Warriors officially clinched the top seed in the Western Conference about two weeks ago and they currently have the best record in the NBA by four games over the Atlanta Hawks out of the East with four games left. However, Golden State now returns home after losing the last two games of a three-game road trip at San Antonio and New Orleans, meaning that the Warriors are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak of the season!

The Blazers left some starters at home when they made a one-game eastern trip necessitated by an earlier postponement, and they were predictably the losing NBA picks vs. the Brooklyn Nets on Monday. However, they had their full roster upon returning home and they blew out the Minnesota Timberwolves 116-91 last night. That makes this the second game of a back-to-back, which is not ideal when facing a Golden State team that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Home Sweet Home!
And the Warriors may put things into hyper-drive tonight in an ornery mood following those two losses, especially returning home where they rarely lose, sitting at 35-2 in Oakland while winning their home games by a fantastic average of +15.4 points!

Now, there is a mistaken belief that the Warriors are just a jump shooting team that is built for regular season success but not for the playoffs, which is where jump-shooting teams usually go to die. After all, Golden State leads the league on scoring with 109.6 points per game, field goal percentage at 47.6 percent and three-point shooting at 39.6 percent, and they do all that in exciting fashion as the only NBA team averaging over 100 possessions per game at 100.6.

However, what often gets overlooked and the reason that the Warriors are legitimate NBA title contenders is that the 99.3 points per game they are allowing is extremely deceptive because of their aforementioned phrenetic pace. The fact of the matter is that Golden State also leads the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at just 42.6 percent and in defensive efficiency!

Blazers Seem Assured of Four Seed
The Blazers seem to be locked into the fourth seed in the West barring a miracle in the last four games, so this could very well be a preview of the second round of the NBA Playoffs which start next week. With that said, it is not as if the Blazers have nothing to play for as even though they would be assured of the fourth seed as Northwest Division Champions, they are not assured home court advantage in the opening round.

And unfortunately, they enter this contest 1½ games behind the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs, who are currently tied for the fifth seed. Getting that home court is important as the Blazers are 32-8 at home and just 19-19 on the road, but it seems it may be difficult to get it considering how well both the Spurs and Clippers are playing right now.

Head-to-Head Warrior Dominance
And then there is also the lack of success that the Blazers have had vs. these Warriors to consider. Golden State has won and covered the first two meetings between these clubs this season and both of those meetings were back in Portland, with the most recent encounter being a decisive 122-108 Warrior win a couple of weeks ago. Furthermore, the Warriors are 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings here in Oakland.

Golden State losing its last two games could be the worst thing that could have happened for Portland, as now look for the Warriors to regroup at home where they have been so dominant all year and respond with a double-digit win on Thursday.

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NBA Pick: Warriors -9½ (-105)

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