Gotta Stick With ‘Over’ For Sixers-Raptors Game 5

Monday, May 6, 2019 6:10 PM UTC

Monday, May. 6, 2019 6:10 PM UTC

As long as they stop missing their open shots, the Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors should go ‘over’ the posted total for Tuesday’s Game 5.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through May 6: 29-29-1 ATS, 0-6 ML (minus-12.63 units), 37-25-1 Totals</em></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Philadelphia (6-3 SU and ATS) at Toronto (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET, TNT</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="" target="_blank">Over</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Sportsbook: <a href=";book=5dimes" target="_blank">5 Dimes</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3782778, "sportsbooksIds":[19,238,169,139,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>At what point do we say “To heck with it” and put the ‘under’ in our <a href="" target="_blank">NBA picks</a> for this series? The Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers were at it again last Sunday, destroying the poor rims at the WFC and <a href="">making us look silly</a><a href="" target="_blank"> </a>once again here at the home office. Final score: Toronto 101, Philadelphia 96 (Under 216). I might cry.<br /><br />Obviously, we’re sticking with the <a href="" target="_blank">‘over’ for Tuesday’s Game 5</a> back in the T-Dot. It’s very important not to be results-oriented with these picks; eventually, some of those open misses from both teams will turn into buckets, and this time, there’s an even lower total of 211.5 points waiting for us on the <a href="" target="_blank">NBA odds board</a> as we go to press. It’s a moral imperative.</p><p> </p><p><span style="color:inherit;font-family:inherit;font-size:1.2em;font-weight:700">Brick Up Your Ears</span></p><p>We can’t blame you if you feel otherwise. All four games in this series have gone ‘under’ by a considerable amount; Sunday was another difficult day of 3-point shooting for the <a href="" target="_blank">Raptors</a> (10-of-31, 32.3 percent), and this time, Philadelphia also struggled from downtown (12-of-38, 31.6 percent). Some of that was good defense, of course. But only some of that.<br /><br />You could try the <a href="" target="_blank">spread </a>instead, but there doesn’t appear to be quite enough profit margin to bother with. The Raptors are 6-point home faves at press time, down from –6.5 at the open, with 88 percent of early bettors loading up on the <a href="" target="_blank">Sixers</a>. Over at <em>The USA Today</em>, Jeff Sagarin’s projections have Toronto at just a shade below –5, while Nate Silver and the crew at FiveThirtyEight have the Raps at –6.5. No sale.</p><p> </p><p><span style="color:inherit;font-family:inherit;font-size:1.2em;font-weight:700">How Sick Are You?</span></p><p>Sagarin also has a combined score of 226.07 points lined up for <a href="" target="_blank">Game 5</a>, so if you care about money, the ‘<a href="" target="_blank">over</a>’ is still the right play here – for a small sum. We can’t completely ignore how poorly both teams have been shooting thus far, especially with<a href="" target="_blank"> Joel Embiid</a> (plus-3.5 OBPM, minus-5.3 DBPM in eight playoff games) reportedly needing an IV before <a href="" target="_blank">Game 4</a>. He shot 2-for-7 and didn’t care to flash his stretch-5 skills much.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "\n&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;brett brown on embiid: \"I got a text from him at 6:20 am this morning telling me he didnt sleep all night, he's never felt this poorly and he wasn't sure if he was even gonna play\" &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Drew Corrigan (@Dcorrigan50) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;May 5, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br />We also have to watch out for <a href="" target="_blank">Pascal Siakam</a> (plus-3.3 OBPM, plus-0.2 DBPM in nine games). He was a game-time decision for Sunday after suffering a right calf contusion in Game 3; Siakam got the start and missed his first eight shots before wrapping up the day at 2-for-10, including 0-4 from beyond the arc. He’s only getting one day off to rest and recover. Maybe some of Serge Ibaka’s home cooking will help Siakam get back in the groove; in the meantime, <a href="" target="_blank">we’ll stick with the ‘over’ for Game 5</a>, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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