NBA Pick: Denver Nuggets -8½ over Phoenix Suns

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, March 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Mar. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The Nuggets have won eight straight games with their offense in high gear and the Suns do not figure to slow them down with one of the worst defenses in the NBA so give the points.

The red-hot road team should probably be able to name the score in Monday night when those Denver Nuggets (42-22, 14-19 away) pay a visit to the Phoenix Suns (22-41, 15-16 home) at the U.S. Airways Center in Phoenix, AZ at 10:05 ET.

The point spread at Bookmaker Sportsbook has Denver as a big road favorite for this contest with the current line at -8½ with odds of -110.

Now, we are certainly not fond of giving this many points on the road and it is not something that we regularly do, but we can easily see the Nuggets running up the score here. Denver extended its winning streak to eight games with a 111-88 rout of the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday.

The Nuggets now rank third in the NBA in scoring with 105.8 points per game overall and they are fourth in field goal percentage at 47.8 percent, but they have taken things to an entirely new level during the eight-game win streak, averaging 111.3 points on 52.7 percent shooting! In fact, Denver has now topped 100 points in 22 of its last 23 games.

The one knock against the Nuggets this year, as it usually is, has been their home vs. away disparity, as they own one of the best home records in the entire NBA at 28-3 but they are just 14-19 on the road. However, three of the wins on the current winning streak have come on the road, albeit vs. two bad teams in Sacramento and Charlotte and one mediocre team in Portland.

However, Phoenix is only one game ahead of Sacramento for the worst record in the Western Conference, so the Suns are just as bad as the teams that the Nuggets have been beating up on away from the altitude of home.

The Nuggets are also looking to crack the top four seeds in the West and earn the home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs that comes with it. Denver is currently fifth in the conference only 1½ behind the fourth place Memphis Grizzlies. As if that were not enough incentive to win every winnable game left, consider that this is also a revenge spot after losing to the Suns 110-100 right here in this building way back in November.

The Nuggets have obviously progressed since the beginning of the season but the Suns have remained pretty flat, which unfortunately in their case means consistently bad. We simply have no idea how Phoenix is going to slow down the Denver offense with a defense that is ranked 21st in the league in points against at 100.1 points per game, 26th in field goal percentage allowed and 30th (as in dead last) in three-point defense.

Furthermore, assuming the Nuggets are allowed to run up the score, Phoenix also lacks the offense to keep pace right now especially with center Marcin Gortat possibly lost for the season with a foot injury suffered last week. That leaves the Suns lacking in size as backup center Jermaine O’Neal is away from the team to be with his daughter, who is about to undergo heart surgery.

Thus, we will do something we rarely do and lay the big points on the road as Denver should win in a good old fashioned blowout on Monday.


NBA Pick: Nuggets -8½ (-110)

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