NBA Pick: Denver Nuggets -6½ over Milwaukee Bucks

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, February 5, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

The Nuggets have won six straight games and they are 20-3 at home, and although the Bucks have played better since firing Scott Skiles, they have no answer for Denver’s offense.

There could be a double-digit victory in store Tuesday night when the Milwaukee Bucks (25-21, 12-11 away) pay a visit to the scorching hot Denver Nuggets (30-18, 20-3 home) at the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO at 9:05 ET.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Denver as a decided favorite for this contest with the current line at -6½ with odds of -109.

The Nuggets are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now as Denver has won six straight games while scoring at least 102 points in every game and at least 113 points in four of the wins. On top of that the Nuggets have one of the best home records in the league at 20-3, as they are outscoring their opponents by an impressive average of +9.1 points at the Pepsi Center.

Granted the current six-game winning streak has been aided by five of the wins coming at home, but that hardly matters with the Nuggets being home again tonight. Even with this hot streak, Denver still finds itself six games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Northwest Division.

Speaking of the Thunder, this winning streak began with a 121-118 overtime win over Kevin Durant & Co., and if you want to go back a few more games, the Nuggets have topped 100 points in nine of their last 10 games while lighting up the scoreboard for 111.6 points per game over those 10 contests!

The catalyst of the winning streak has been point guard Ty Lawson, who is really coming into his own in his fourth season out of North Carolina. Lawson is averaging an impressive 20.4 points, 7.4 assists and 2.8 steals over his last five games and the Bucks really do not have the defenders to slow him down.

Now the Bucks were 16-16 and averaging 97.7 points per game when they parted ways with former coach Scott Skiles, and they have improved under interim coach Jim Boylan, going 9-5 and averaging 101.9 points per game. Skiles was a defensive minded coach that simply did not have the players to fit the system that he wanted, as Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis are both natural scorers that love to run the floor, and they are both liabilities defensively.

Boylan has allowed the Bucks to play to their strengths by playing a more wide open style, and the results have been mostly positive as far as the win column is concerned. However, there has been some trade-off as Milwaukee has allowed 100.1 points per game in Boylan’s 14 games as the acting coach.

The Bucks have gotten away with that for the most part but they are now facing very hot offense with a very hot point guard, and we simply do not see Milwaukee keeping pace here unless it can shoot a very high percentage from the field. Well, Denver actually plays much better defense than given credit for as a lot of the points that the Nuggets allow are the result of their fast pace, as they rank a respectable 10th in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at 44.2 percent.

Thus, look for Denver to win its seventh straight game and to do so by double-digits at home on Tuesday.

NBA Pick: Nuggets -6½ (-109)

comment here