NBA Pick: Dallas Mavericks -6 over Utah Jazz

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, March 24, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Mar. 24, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The Jazz have had severe home vs. away splits and lately they have been bad no matter the venue. The Mavericks have been one of the better ATS teams in the NBA. Give the points Sunday.

The home favorite looks to have some value Sunday night when the Utah Jazz (34-45, 10-26 away) pay a visit to the Dallas Mavericks (33-36, 19-14 home) at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX at 7:35 ET.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Dallas as a home favorite for this contest with the current line at -6 with odds of -113.

The Jazz have struggled on the road all season, and although they did manage to take the Spurs to overtime in San Antonio in their last game on Friday, the end result was still a 104-97 loss that dropped Utah to 10-26 on the road.

Yes, Utah is still in the playoff hunt as it is ninth in the Western Conference, 1½ games behind the Los Angeles Lakers for the eighth and final playoff spot, and the Jazz are even one game ahead of the Mavericks in 10th. However, the Jazz are dropping quickly and they are showing no signs of turning things around, especially on the road.

Truthfully the Jazz are not playing well right now regardless of the venue as they have lost eight of their last 10 games overall to fall to one game under .500. However, they have been downright atrocious on the road, going 1-11 in their last 12 games away from Salt Lake City while losing by an average of -9.6 points. Their only road win during this span was by just four points over the last place Minnesota Timberwolves.

Utah has won both meetings vs. Dallas so far this season, but both of those wins came at home where the Jazz are 24-9 while averaging 99.8 points and allowing an average of 94.8 points. It has been the total opposite on the road though where they are averaging just 95.9 points per contest and allowing a whopping average of 102.2 on a generous 47.7 percent shooting.

The Mavericks suffered a bit of a hiccup by losing at home to the Brooklyn Nets in the middle of this week, but Dallas bounced back nicely with a 10-point win over the Boston Celtics Friday, and as we alluded to it is playing with double revenge here.

Unlike the Jazz, the Mavericks are playing like a team that wants to make the playoffs as they are 7-3 both straight up and ATS over the last 10 games, and while the three losses all came to playoff teams (Spurs, Thunder and Nets), the Mavs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. teams with losing records.

In fact, without much fanfare, Dallas actually has the fourth best spread record in the NBA this season at 41-28 ATS, and the Mavericks are a raging 18-5 ATS in their last 23 conference games! It certainly helps that Dirk Nowitzki is finally approaching peak form after getting such a late start this year following knee surgery and that Shawn Marion returned Friday after missing eight games with a calf injury and has an immediate impact with 11 points and 13 rebounds.

Look for the Mavericks to draw even with the Jazz in the conference standings with a handy victory at home in Dallas on Sunday.


NBA Pick: Mavericks -6 (-113)

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