NBA Pick on Clippers and Spurs ‘under’ in Elimination Game 6

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, April 30, 2015 2:09 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

 



After a couple of high scoring contests in Game 4 and Game 5, look for less scoring Thursday night in a potential elimination game when the third seeded Los Angeles Clippers (58-29, 27-16 away) this time visit the sixth seeded San Antonio Spurs (58-29, 34-9 home) for Game 6 of their first round NBA Playoff series from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX at 9:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT. The Spurs lead the series 3-2.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 205½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.


Great Elimination Game ‘under’ Trends from goldengreek
Before proceeding with our analysis of this potential elimination game, the Sportsbook Review Forum poster goldengreek did a great analysis showing how games like this have tended to go ‘under’ over the years. In fact, since the 2004 NBA Playoffs, the ‘under’ is now 125-82-3, 60.4 percent overall in all potential elimination games after we add in the 5-3 mark so far this season.

Furthermore in potential elimination Game 6s and Game 7s only, the ‘under’ is a lucrative 70-36-2, 66.0 percent over those past 11 NBA Playoff seasons, with tonight being the first occurrences of that angle this year, as the other contest between the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks also qualifies as a Game 6 ‘under’ NBA pick. Keep an even closer eye on this in future rounds though where Game 6 and Game 7 ‘unders’ are 38-16-1 from Round 2 onward!


Teams Exchanging Home Court Advantages
The Clippers are the three-seeds here, so they had home court advantage in this series. However, the defending champion Spurs seized that with a win in Los Angeles in Game 2 and they appeared in control of the series with a romp in Game 3 at home before a Clippers’ team not known for its playoff resiliency got off the mat for a big Game 4 win on the road. However, they immediately gave home court right back with the Spurs winning in LA 111-107 in Game 5.

That win in the most pivotal game of the series may prove to be the ultimate difference with San Antonio now favored to wrap things up at home tonight, and it seems less likely that the Spurs would lose two home games in a series than the Clippers, who have already accomplished that dubious feat.

And remember that while both of these teams can score, one major difference entering this series was that San Antonio had the superior defensive numbers, finishing third in the NBA in points against during the regular season surrendering 97.0 points per game. And besides the hiccup in Game 4 where the Spurs allowed Los Angeles to shoot an ungodly 53.6 percent, San Antonio has indeed been the better defensive team over the rest of the series.


Will Clippers Wilt Just Like Past Playoff Teams?
As we alluded to earlier, the Clippers have been annual disappointments in the playoffs despite breaking a long playoff drought once Blake Griffin arrived, as while that have now become annual post-season participants, they have yet to advance past the second round despite being top-four seeds every year. And our current sense here is that they probably blew their chance to knock off the champs this series with the Game 5 home loss.

Furthermore, do not forget what happened the last time the Spurs won in Los Angeles and then returned home to San Antonio the following game. That occurred in Game 3 and it was the most lopsided game of this series with the Spurs winning 100-73! But our primary focus is on the total with that final output more than 30 points less than this posted total as the San Antonio defense showed what it could do limiting the Clippers to 34.1 percent shooting.

Given the Clippers’ past playoff penchant for folding up their tents when the going gets tough, do not be surprised by a replay here with the Spurs opening up a big lead and the Clips fading away as is their wont and not holding up their end of the bargain offensively, which would be fatal to ‘over’ players at this posted number.


The ‘under’ Should be 3-2 in This Series
Finally, while the ‘over’ is 3-2 in this series, by rights the ‘under’ should have been 3-0 in the first three game as the Spurs’ 111-107 win in Game 2 needed overtime to go ‘over’ the posted total of 206½ in a game that stood at only 188 points at the end of regulation time. Look for a return to that ‘under’ form of the first three games in this elimination contest.

Thus, after a couple of high scoring games in Game 4 and Game 5 that have actually served to inflate this Game 6 total a tad, expect a lower scoring affair and an ‘under’ when the Los Angeles Clippers visit San Antonio for Game 6 on Thursday.

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NBA Pick: Clippers, Spurs ‘under’ 205½ (-110)