NBA Pick on Clippers, Rockets ‘under’ in Decisive Game 7

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, May 17, 2015 2:24 PM GMT

Sunday, May. 17, 2015 2:24 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

 



After an epic Game 6 collapse and six straight ‘overs’ in this series, it could be a lower scoring pressurized series finale Sunday when the third seeded Los Angeles Clippers (63-32, 29-18 away) this time pay a visit to the second seeded Houston Rockets (63-30, 35-12 home) for the decisive Game 7 of their Western Conference semifinal from the Toyota Center in Houston, TX at 3:35 ET in a game televised nationally on ABC.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 219½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103


Same Old Clippers?
The Clippers had appeared to turn a corner this season after underachieving in the playoffs every year despite having some great regular season teams, but now there may be a feeling of “same old, same old” after blowing a 19-point lead at home in Game 6 when they appeared to be on their way to their first conference finals in franchise history, getting outscored 40-15 in the fourth quarter!

Thus the Rockets were the winning NBA picks for the second straight game after looking like a dead team trailing 3-1 in this series and looking almost disinterested while losing Game 3 by 25 points and Game 4 by 33 points in Los Angeles. They then seemed to only be prolonging the inevitable with a 21-point at home in Game 5, and that seemed especially true entering the fourth quarter on Thursday in Los Angeles again before the miraculous comeback.


Game 7s Have Been Lower Scoring
Before proceeding with our analysis for this game, let us again reference the Elimination Game ‘under’ system posted by goldengreek in the Sportsbook Review Forum. After updating the records for the ‘under’ going 5-2 overall in Game 6s and Game 7s so far this season including 2-1 in this second round, all Game 6 and Game 7 ‘unders’ are now 75-38-2 since the 2004 NBA Playoffs including 40-17-1 from the second round onward!

Breaking those numbers down further to Game 7s exclusively, the Game 7 ‘under’ is now 22-13, 62.9 percent in all rounds since 2004 with an average combined score in those games of just 184.3 points. Furthermore, the Game 7 ‘under’ is 12-5, 70.6 percent from the second round on with a miniscule average score of 177.6 points. Sure the ‘over’ is 6-0 in this series so far, but that may be serving to give us excellent line value for this very good system.


Can Rockets Play a Little Defense?
Of course cashing this play actually requires these teams to play some defense. The Clippers do seem capable of doing so however as they improved a lot defensively during their hot streak to end the regular season, and even in this series they are the only team to hold the opponent below 100 points, doing so twice in the previously referenced Game 3 and Game 4 blowouts.

Now expecting the Rockets to play some defense may seem like a reach, but the Clippers showed in that fourth quarter of Game 6 that they can help make the Houston defense look better than it is once the pressure is on, shooting an ungodly 18.2 percent for the period. If the Clippers felt the pressure then, what will happen in a decisive Game 7 on the road with the first Western Conference Finals berth in team history on the line?

Besides, with an enormous posted total like this one, just one team playing defense is usually enough to keep the outcome ‘under’.


The ‘under’ was Actually 4-0 in Regular Season
And although you would not know it by the ‘over’ going 6-0 in this series, it was actually the ‘under’ that went that went 4-0 in the four regular season meetings between these teams, and all four of those games had lower posted totals than this one, so it is not as if these teams are incapable of going ‘under’ against one another.

Look for the pattern of ‘unders’ in elimination games to continue with Houston and the Los Angeles Clippers going ‘under’ for the first time all series with this inflated number in the deciding Game 7 from the Lone Star State Sunday on ABC.

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NBA Pick: Clippers, Rockets ‘under’ 219½ (-103)

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