Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.
In what is seemingly the biggest mismatch of the young NBA season so far Monday night, the defending champion San Antonio Spurs (12-4, 6-3 away) pay a visit to the still winless Philadelphia 76ers (0-16, 0-9 home) at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA at 7:05 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet - Philadelphia.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 196½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at a positive +102.
Champs Have Won Seven Straight
People have been calling the Spurs “old” for years, but this team is showing no signs of slowing down while defending it NBA Championship as San Antonio has won seven straight games and at 12-4 has closed to within 2½ games of the team with the best record in the NBA, the 15-2 Memphis Grizzlies, in the Southwest Division.
The Spurs are obviously prohibitive road favorites here over the 76ers, who have been losing NBA picks in all 16 of their games so far while losing by a dreadful average of -14.9 points! Philadelphia is simultaneously last in the NBA in scoring with 90.8 points per game and 27th out of 30 teams in points against at 105.7 points per encounter. If the Sixers are trying for secure a number one draft pick as most suspect, then they are certainly doing an excellent job.
Two Losses from History
In fact they are not far off from taking their futility to historical levels as at 0-16, they are two losses shy from tying the 2009-10 New Jersey Nets for the most consecutive losses to start a season, as those Nets were 0-18 until beating the expansion Charlotte Bobcats. The Sixers seem to have an excellent chance to not just “catch” the Nets but to shatter their record with an upcoming schedule that does not seem very friendly.
Nonetheless, we have no interest in giving double-digits on the road with the Spurs in this spot, so we are turning our attention to the total where we see no reason why this contest should not reach at leas 200 total points, so we feel this posted total seems deflated.
For starters, we are not sure how a Philadelphia defense allowing 105.7 points per game as mentioned and also ranking 28th in the NBA in field goal percentage allowed at 47.4 percent can possibly stop a San Antonio offense ranked fifth in field goal percentage at 46.4 percent offensively, even if the Spurs’ scoring average of 99.4 points is a bit down from recent seasons.
Spurs on Back-to-Back
Perhaps the more important part about us liking the ‘over’ here though is because we do not expect a typical effort from what has been a strong San Antonio defense this season. You see, the Spurs are playing the second game of a back-to-back after winning 111-89 in Boston yesterday and they have seemingly tougher games to complete this road trip coming up at Brooklyn on Wednesday and especially at Memphis on Friday.
That probably makes this a “breather” spot and we expect the Spurs to save their energy on defense knowing that they will probably win this contest without an all-out effort. And remember that while the 76ers are last in the league in scoring, they have managed to average 99.3 points in their last three games while topping 100 points twice, so it is not inconceivable that Philadelphia can score 100 points or come close to it if the Spurs are indifferent defensively.
Not Likely to Rest Regulars This Time
Now it is no secret that Spurs’ Coach Gregg Popovich loves to rest his aging regulars in the second of back-to-backs, but that seems unlikely after what happened in Boston Sunday. You see, the Spurs used a 28-12 flurry to begin the second half to effectively put the game away, and as a result the trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili hardly played in the fourth quarter, and in Duncan’s case did not play at all. And besides, that game had a 1:00 ET day tip.
Thus expect a full San Antonio roster for this contest although the defense may still be more lax than usual, so go ‘over’ in Philadelphia on Monday.
NBA Pick: Spurs, 76ers ‘over’ 196½ (+102)