NBA Pick on Bulls to Handily Wrap Up Series in Game 5

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, April 27, 2015 2:36 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 27, 2015 2:36 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Monday.


Look for another first round NBA Playoff series to come to an end Monday night when the sixth seeded Milwaukee Bucks (42-44, 18-25 away) this time pay a visit to the third seeded Chicago Bulls (53-33, 29-14 home) for Game 5 from the United Center in Chicago, IL at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT, with the Bulls leading the series 3-1.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Chicago as a decided home favorite for this contest with the current line at -8½ with odds of -105.

Milwaukee Improvement Does Not Mean Much Now
The Bucks had a dramatic turnaround this season as they went from having the worst record in the NBA last season at 15-67 to making the playoffs as a six-seed with a .500 record of 41-41 this season, and they were especially lucrative bets on the road going 27-14 ATS away from home during the regular season.

However that road success has not extended into Chicago as after the Bulls were the winning NBA picks ATS here at the United Center in the first two games of this series, they are now 4-0 ATS vs. the Bucks in this building this year combining the regular season and the playoffs. That is an encouraging sign as the Bulls try to put Milwaukee away after basically giving away Game 4.

Uncharacteristically Sloppy Bulls
By rights, the Bulls probably should have complete the series sweep in Milwaukee Saturday in a game where they shot 33-for-68, 48.5 percent from the field led by All-Star Jimmy Butler’s 33 points while limiting the Bucks to just 34-for-87, 39.1 percent shooting. Take note of all of the extra field goal attempts the Bucks had in that game though.

And the reasons for that were twofold. First, even though the Bulls won the overall rebounding battle 39-34, it was the Bucks that had more offensive rebounds by a 12-5 count. But more importantly, the Bulls uncharacteristically committed a whopping 28 turnovers in the contest, which was a season high for them as they did not commit that many turnovers in any game during the regular season!

And then there was the almost inexplicable defensive breakdown at the end that allowed Jerryd Bayless to get an uncontested lay-up at the final buzzer for a 92-90 Milwaukee victory that seemed to be far from deserved. The last thing Chicago wants to do now is give the Bucks any confidence, especially since a potential Game 6 would be played in Milwaukee, so look for the angry Bulls to respond accordingly here and show no mercy with an all-out effort.

Bucks Cannot Generate Any Offense
The 92 points Milwaukee scored despite winning Game 4 was not an aberration based on how the Bucks have performed vs. the Chicago defense this season, especially here in Chicago, and a repeat performance of that would simply not get the job done. In fact, the Bucks finished the regular season 22nd in the NBA in scoring at 97.8 points per game overall, and unfortunately that have not even reached that modest average vs. the Bulls.

Remember that the 106 points the Bucks scored in Game 3 came in overtime as they had 95 points during regulation time in that contest. So looking at regulation scoring only, the Bucks have averaged a woeful 87.4 points in their eight meetings with the Bulls overall this year combining regular season and playoffs, and in the four meetings in Chicago they have averaged a disgusting 82.3 points!

Furthermore there was a noticeable drop-off in the Milwaukee scoring after trading away Brandon Knight at the trading deadline, and the Bucks probably wish they had Knight’s veteran leadership at the point guard spot right now.

No Love More Incentive for Chicago to Win
As if the Bulls needed more incentive for ending this series tonight and preparing for their second round matchup with the pre-playoff favorites to win the NBA Championship, LeBron James and the Cavaliers, remember that Cleveland lost Kevin Love for at least two weeks with a separated shoulder Sunday, so the sooner the Bulls take care of the Bucks, the sooner the second round may begin meaning playing more games with Love out for the Cavaliers.

Add this all up and things may turn ugly for Milwaukee as Chicago should put this series to bed with a handy double-digit victory at home in Game 5 on Monday.

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NBA Pick: Bulls -8½ (-105)

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