NBA Pick on Bulls, Cavaliers to Sneak ‘over’ 191 in Game 4

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 12, 2015 1:48 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

 



An ugly shooting performance in Game 4 may have led to an overcompensation downwards in the total Tuesday lending value to the ‘over’ when the third seeded Chicago Bulls (56-36, 26-20 away) pay a visit to the second seeded Cleveland Cavaliers (60-29, 34-10 home) for Game 5 of their Eastern Conference semifinal from Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH at 7:05 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT, with the series tied at 2-2.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 191 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -107.


Crucial Road Win in Game 4
The Cavaliers were the favorites to win the NBA Championship before these playoffs started, but that was before losing Kevin Love for the season and they were also without J.R. Smith when they surrendered home court advantage in this series by losing Game 1 at home 99-92. That made Game 4 in Chicago the pivotal game of the series and the Cavs came through 86-84 on LeBron James’s game-winner to tie things up and re-seize home court advantage.

Thus the Bulls blew a golden opportunity to take a series stranglehold after being the winning NBA pick on a final buzzer-beater of their own by Derrick Rose in Game 3, and this is now a best-of-three series with Chicago needing to win a game here at “The Q” to have a chance at advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.


Deflated Total for Game 5?
While this series cannot get any tighter, the shooting performances from Game 4 will certainly not show up on any training tapes as the winning Cavaliers went 29-for-75, 38.7 percent from the field and the losing Bulls were an abysmal 32-for-89, 36.0 percent, resulting in the final total output of 170 points that was easily the lowest scoring meeting of the year between these teams, be it playoffs or regular season.

However, we feel that has led to a deflated total for tonight’s game making this ‘over’ quite playable. Consider that the first four games of this series all had posted totals between 194 and 195, and while Game 1 went ‘under’, it would have been a ‘push’ against tonight’s posted total of 191. Then Game 2 and Game 3 both went ‘over’, meaning they obviously would have gone ‘over’ more easily vs. tonight’s total.

So now, there is a full three-point downward adjustment in the total after the lowest scoring meeting of the year on Sunday? That simply sounds like an overreaction in our eyes.


Regular Season Meetings Also All Exceeded This Total
Furthermore, before Game 4, none of the meetings this year during the regular season or playoffs had fewer points scored than the 191 in Game 1, when the Cavaliers were without the suspended Smith who is now back and who has provided a scoring spark since his return, even in the ugly Game 4 when he scored 13 points off the bench on 5-of-10 shooting including going 3-for-6 beyond the three-point arc.

The lowest scoring total output in the four regular season meetings was 193 points and the other three regular-season meetings all exceeded 200 points, in fact bottoming out at 202 points! Yes that included a 114-108 overtime game early in the season, but even that contest was at 196 points after regulation, good enough to go safely ‘over’ here.


Home vs. Away Splits Support ‘over’ Too
Finally, looking the splits for all games for these teams combining the regular season and playoffs, all Cleveland home games have averaged a combined 199.3 points, more that eight points higher than this total, and all Chicago road games have averaged 197.4 points, still more than six points higher than this number.

Add this all up and we actually see value in this deflated total despite the terrible shooting in Game 4, so look for a rather sneaky ‘over’ when Chicago visits Cleveland for Game 5 on Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: Bulls, Cavaliers ‘over’ 191 (-107)