NBA Pick on Bucks and Knicks to sneak ‘over’ the Total

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, April 10, 2015 4:03 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.

 



Although neither team is known for its offense, there could be a sneaky ‘over’ Friday night in a game with a seemingly deflated total when the Milwaukee Bucks (38-40, 16-23 away) pay a visit to the New York Knicks (15-63, 10-29 home) at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY at 7:35 ET in a game available on MSG.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 190 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -106.


Magic Number for Bucks is Two
It has been a tremendous turnaround for the Bucks this season as they went from having the worst record in the NBA last season to now being on the verge of a clinching a playoff spot with their magic number for doing so at two. One negative for Milwaukee however is that it seemed securely in the playoffs at around the All-Star break but it has not played as well in the second half since trading away veteran point guard Brandon Knight.

So after the Bucks had the league’s worst record last year, it now looks like the Knicks are following in those footsteps as the worst NBA picks this season, as at 15-63 New York has a one-game “lead” over the 16-62 Minnesota Timberwolves for that dubious distinction with four games left to play. Of course, finishing with the worst record in the NBA does not guarantee the number one draft pick like other sports, but it does give you more chances in the draft lottery.


Knicks Play No Defense
The Knicks are second to last in the NBA with their 91.8 points per game, which on the surface does not seem conducive to an ‘over’, but then you must consider their poor defense and this low posted total, both of which may combine to give this ‘over’ a bit of hidden value. In fact, the ‘over’ is 3-2 in the last five Knicks’ games despite New York only reaching 100 points once, so this would not be the first time the shoddy defense led to an ‘over’.

New York is now 21st in the NBA in points against at 101.3 per game, 26th in field goal percentage allowed at 46.0 percent and dead last in three-point defense at 38.3 percent, and as a result the average combined score of all Knicks games this season has been 193.1 points, which while ordinarily low, is actually a shade over three points more than this posted total.


Bucks Allow Exactly as Much as They Score
Meanwhile, the Bucks have not played as well defensively over the second half of the season, and in fact they are now averaging and allowing an identical 97.7 points per game overall this season as they have slid to two games below .500. That is still in stark contract to last season though so perhaps Jason Kidd must be given credit for being a good NBA coach, as first he took the Nets to the playoffs in his first year as a coach and now he has led this turnaround.

But our main point is that while the Bucks have not been great offensively, they have at least been decent, which is more than can be said about the Knicks’ offense this year, and the combined score of all Milwaukee games of 195.4 points is nearly 5½ points higher than this posted total.


Greek Freak Should be Back
Furthermore, Milwaukee’s “Greek Freak” Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected back tonight after taking a mysterious benching in a 104-99 home loss to LeBron James and the Cavaliers on Wednesday in what was probably some disciplinary decision, ending his streak of 145 consecutive games played. The now 19-year-old has made nice strides offensively averaging 12.7 points on 49.7 percent shooting while adding 6.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.

With the Bucks now having a full roster to take advantage of the Knicks’ defense, look for Milwaukee and New York to sneak ‘over’ this relatively low total on Friday.

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NBA Pick: Bucks, Knicks ‘over’ 190 (-106)