Huge game six in the East Conference Playoffs today as the Bucks take on the Bulls, which can clinch the series in this spot, but I like the Bucks NBA odds to upset & take the series back to Chicago.
Defensive intensity and the line
Both teams the last two games have picked things up on the defensive end with the Bucks limiting Chicago to 88 and 90 points and the Bulls limiting Milwaukee to 92 and 94 points. Even with the big scoring affair in the third game of the series in the last three games the teams combined are only shooting around 41.5%. In that same time span though the three point shooting has been solid for both teams with Milwaukee going for 38.4% beyond the arc and the Bulls at 36.8%. This is surprising mainly because both teams have focused on defending beyond the arc this season. Chicago was ranked second in the league in defensive three point percentage at 33.5%, and the Bucks not far behind at 34.5%. With the game coming back to Milwaukee I like this overall defensive trend to continue and the game should be very tightly contested. At WagerWeb and GTBets Chicago is favored by -3.5, this makes sense considering their overall record and more notoriety, as well as them losing three times in a row is a tall order. Still, I like the Bucks to do just that, it took them a while to get rolling but they are playing well enough right now to get it done and the value on the NBA odds board goes to them in this spot.
Chicago has been turning the ball over at a really bad clip. In the last three games they are averaging 19.7 turnovers per game. That is about five more turnovers than their yearly average. If the Bucks can continue playing with the same defensive intensity we have seen from them they have a very good shot at upsetting the Bulls today. I like the value on Bucks money line, making them my upset NBA pick of the day.
NBA Pick: Bucks at 5Dimes