NBA Pick: Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors ‘under’ 195

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, April 14, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Sunday, Apr. 14, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

The Nets are dreaming about catching the Pacers for the third seed, but Brooklyn will probably have to count on its defense as the recent hot shooting is an anomaly. Go ‘under’ in Toronto.

There could be an inflated total giving value to the ‘under’ on Sunday when the red-hot Brooklyn Nets (47-32, 23-17 away) travel north of the border to pay a visit to the Toronto Raptors (31-48, 19-20 home) at Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON Canada at 3:35 ET.

The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 195 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

The Nets have won four straight games with the most important one being an impressive road win over the Indiana Pacers on Friday that leaved the Nets only two games behind the slumping third-seeded Pacers with three games to play.

What has stood out about the Brooklyn winning streak is that it has reached 100 points in all four victories. The Nets are not a team that gets many possessions, so they have scored all those points by shooting a cumulative 47.7 percent from the field over the four wins, and they are at a blistering 46.6 percent from beyond the three-point line in the last three games. The Nets are not a team that can carry those kinds of percentages, so regression may be in order.

After all, the Nets are second to last in the NBA in pace rating at 91.0 possessions per game, just marginally ahead of last place New Orleans (90.9), and Brooklyn is only 17th in scoring at 96.8 points per game, 14th in field goal percentage at 44.9 percent and 16th in three-point shooting at 35.8 percent. Those overall numbers are a better representation of the Nets than their recent shooting form.

That is not to say that the Nets cannot keep on winning, but they will have to rely more on their defense as they have for most of the season while ranking fifth in the NBA in points against at only 95.0 per game. Also the lone visit by the Nets to Toronto this season was especially low scoring with Brooklyn prevailing 94-88. That brought the ‘under’ to 4-1 in the Nets’ last five trips north of the border with neither team reaching 100 points in any of those five games!

The Raptors have continued to play hard despite being eliminated from playoff contention long ago as they have won four of their last five games, but the main reason for that recent success is because the improved defense allowed less than 100 points in all four of the wins including allowing just 78 points to Washington and 88 points to Chicago.

The offense has not done much though. The Raptors are tied with the Nets at 96.8 points per game for the season, but the Raptors have reached 100 points just once in the last 11 games. Do not look for improvement today vs. a good Nets’ defense.

So in the end, we feel that the two defenses will decide this game and that we are getting very good line value on the ‘under’ here considering how the recent head-to-head meetings have gone in Toronto. With this total probably padded because of Brooklyn’s recent unrealistic shooting, we are going ‘under’ the total Sunday.

[gameodds]5/224748/93-238-19-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Nets, Toronto Raptors ‘under’ 195 (-110)

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