NBA Pick on Blazers and Nets to go ‘over’ the Total Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, April 6, 2015 4:30 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 6, 2015 4:30 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.


An interesting dynamic could lead to an ‘over’ Monday night when the Portland Trail Blazers (50-26, 19-18 away) fly east for just this one game as they pay a visit to the Brooklyn Nets (35-41, 16-20 home) at the Barclays Centers in Brooklyn, NY at 7:05 ET in a game available on YES.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 202½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -109.

Make-Up of Game Postponed by Blizzard
This game was originally scheduled to be played back in January, but it was postponed due to a forecasted blizzard in New York, and that is the reason that it is now being played on this night of the NCAA Basketball Championship Game on a night the NBA traditionally takes off entirely.

That sets up a quirk in the Portland schedule as after the Blazers were the winning NBA picks back home in the Great Northwest 99-90 over the New Orleans Pelicans Saturday night, they made the long flight east for just this one game and will then fly back out west for a home date vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday!

Blazers Left the Regulars at Home
As a result, the Blazers decided to leave LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Chris Kaman back home in Portland and make this trip without them, and remember that Wesley Matthews is already our for the season. That is a total of 57.7 points per game that the Blazers will be without here including its leading scorer Aldridge and his 23.4 points! Of course, the fact that Portland is seemingly locked in as the fourth seed in the West made this decision easier.

Thus, either guards Damian Lillard, Aaron Afflalo and center Robin Lopez may get more extended minutes than usual here if the Blazers play to win, or their minutes may be limited too with Portland basically mailing this game in, especially with the Blazers depleted at the forward position tonight. That may give this game the feel of an exhibition game from a Portland perspective, with basically no defense being played during expensive garbage time.

Nets Trying to Hold on to Playoff Spot
Conversely, this is much more than an exhibition game for the Nets as they are now up to a seven-seed in the weak Eastern Conference despite being six games under .500, one-half game ahead of the eighth seeded Boston Celtics but more importantly just 1½ games from being out of the playoffs, as that is their lead on the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat tied in ninth.

Brooklyn will also look to get back on track after getting embarrassed 131-99 by the top seeded Hawks on Saturday, distressingly allowing Atlanta to shoot 49-for-82, 59.8 percent from the field! While that shooting performance was an aberration, the Nets are 19th in the NBA in points against at 101.1 per game, a figure that is even worse than it looks because Brooklyn plays at such a slow tempo for former Memphis Grizzlies Coach Lionel Hollins.

The Nets are 20th in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 45.5 percent and 22nd in three-point defense at 35.7 percent, and even though the Blazers are depleted, the starting Portland guards especially Lillard can do damage vs. the Brooklyn defense. But the Nets may also exceed their usual scoring tonight with so many Portland reserves playing, especially if the latter stages of this game are as sloppy as expected.

Trending ‘over’
And there are certainly enough trends favoring the ‘over’ here as it is now 5-0 in the Nets’ last five games overall, 5-0 in the Blazers’ last five games vs. the Eastern Conference and 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings here in Brooklyn.

Look for some sloppy play, especially late, to allow those ‘over’ trends to continue when Portland makes its one-game eastern trip to Brooklyn on Monday.

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NBA Pick: Blazers, Nets ‘over’ 202½ (-109)

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