NBA Pick for Big Underdog Upset Alert: Celtics to Shock Warriors Tonight

SBR Staff

Sunday, March 1, 2015 7:01 PM GMT

Sunday, Mar. 1, 2015 7:01 PM GMT

Today we go to Boston to see how they can upset the Golden State Warriors.  The NBA odds makers have made Golden State the obvious favorite here at -8, but we like Boston, even without Sullinger.

Brad Stevens
Has there been a better coach in the NBA this year (enter argument for Steve Kerr)?  Stevens gets every bit out of his players and I think he will have them ready in this match up. Just like when he was at Butler with over matched players, he will continue to improve this team every year.  My money is on Boston to get back to elite status within the next three years. They are already two wins away from matching their total wins last year. In February they are 7-4 overall and on a five game home winning streak. They have not lost by double digits and have played everyone tough even in the losses.

 

You CAN beat them on the road (sometimes)
Golden State enters tonight as a 9-point favorite on NBA odds and thats on the road, at home they are pretty much unbeatable.  If you are going to pull any kind of upset against them this is the kind of spot. The Warriors shoot almost 50% at home but on the road it “dips” to 46%, and 3pt. shooting at home is at 41% while on the road 37%.  Mind you these are not big disparities but if you are going to beat them it is when they travel.  Recently as well they have been more pedestrian on this big road trip losing to Indiana and Cleveland.  This  will be their 6th game in 11 days with these last five coming on the road so we could see it catching up to them a touch.  Boston is in the same situation in total games to nights but this is their third home game in a row.  Also on one day rest is where Golden State has statistically shot at their worst (46% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc). Statistically the Celtics will catch the Warriors in their “worst” kind of scenario.

 

Rejuvenation in Boston and other points
I hope it doesn’t become a running theme for the Celtics as they continue to work trades and find the pieces they want to go forward with. I also don’t want to throw the word rejuvenation around to swiftly but when the shoe fits…  They have won their last three games in a row. They lost to Golden State by 3 at Golden State after a furious comeback (they won’t quit on Stevens). At home all of Boston’s stats go up from field goal percentage to assists, and their turnovers go down.  The Warriors recent performance has not been anything special in February, they had two quality wins (at home) against Dallas and San Antonio, besides that they have faced the bottom rung of the league or teams on (or were on) losing streaks (Sac, NY, Phil, Min, Was, Tor)… or they lost (all on the road, Atl, Ind, Cle).  You know who else beat Atlanta?  Boston.

We think there is a ton of value taking the money line on Boston in this match up. We know they will be very up for this game and have possibly caught Golden State in a pretty tough spot. With Stevens running the show we are confident they have what it takes in this situation to pull the upset and we suggest you add them to your NBA picks.

My NBA Free Pick: Boston plus money line

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