Today’s the fourth game of the Eastern Conference Finals and I'm checking the NBA odds in search of betting value. Can Atlanta pull off an upset and extend the series one more game?
NBA betting odds makers have come out making the Cleveland Cavaliers a -8 favorite which makes sense. The issue for me though is value, and there is a lot of value at taking the Hawks to fight off elimination at three to one odds. The Hawks have only lost three times in row once this year (not counting the last three of the regular season which did not matter to them), that time was at Golden State, at Oklahoma, and then San Antonio. They did not lose four in a row all year and I think it will be more difficult than people realize for the Cavs.
In this series, as far as averages go, there is not a lot of daylight between these two teams. Both teams are shooting around 42% on the series from the field. The big issues that the Hawks need to address are rebounds and three point shooting. In the series the Hawks have been out rebounded 61 to 48 per game average, and in the last game the Cavs had a 19-6 offensive rebounding margin, that can’t happen on the year Hawks allowed an average of 11 offensive rebounds per game. Cleveland is also still out shooting the Hawks from distance averaging 39% compared to the Hawks at 27%. But there were some good signs for Atlanta who went for 37% last game, which is around their season average.
Just like Houston yesterday don’t count out the Hawks just yet. They are well coached, good defensive team that has not played very well so far. If they can just get on a bit of a run they should be able to pull out this game four even with the odds against them. Add Hawks plus money line to your NBA picks tonight.
NBA Pick: Hawks at the Greek