NBA Pick: Best Betting Value on the Total for Hawks/Nets Game 4

Charles Stark

Monday, April 27, 2015 11:18 AM GMT

Monday, Apr. 27, 2015 11:18 AM GMT

As Brooklyn looked to even the series I'm all about the total tonight for my NBA pick. So far this series has been a low scoring but I anticipate they'll break in out in this critical game 4.

The line
This line made my eyes pop. These two teams are averaging 184 points a game yet the line does not reflect this at all at with NBA odds makers making it 195.5. 

 

The ball is supposed to go in the hoop
Pretty easy mantra to follow here but neither team has been very proficient in accomplishing this. So far in this series the Atlanta Hawks are averaging 92.7 points a game and the Nets are just behind them at 91.3 per game. This is pretty surprising for teams that have averaged much bigger number this year with Hawks at over 102 per game and the Nets at 98.  What is even more shocking is the shooting percentage disparity, the Hawks averaged 46.3% and the Nets 45% from the field this year but in this series they are at 39% and 43% respectively. I don’t think these averages will hold up though and I believe both these teams will break out of their funks tonight.  They are still getting pretty good looks and have shot the ball at a consistent rate comparable to the season. Combined they averaged 164.8 shots a game and in this series they have averaged 166.3 shots per game, so the pace is and tempo is still there.  I know we can attribute this to some good defense on both ends, but in watching this series for me it has come down to them simply not knocking down shots that they normally do. As well, together both teams have attempted more shots from beyond the arc than their averages on the year. I expect both teams to make adjustments tonight on the offensive end and put up some good numbers.

 

Atlanta is the key
So far in this series the Hawks have not played like they normally have most of this season. A big factor to this could be attributed to Brooklyn on defense but I think it is more about their ball movement. On the year they averaged almost 26 assists per game but in this series they are averaging just below 23 per game. Both teams are not turning the ball over more than their averages and it has been the Hawks that have not been sharp. After looking at some film and seeing where they could exploit some things I believe they will come in at their best yet in this series and start putting up some solid numbers.
I am conceding the fact that the odds makers are well aware of all the intangibles so I will back the over in this spot and add it to my NBA picks tonight.

NBA Pick: Take the Over at The Greek

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