NBA Odds On Total Dropped For Game 7 Between Hornets & Heat

Jason Lake

Sunday, May 1, 2016 11:46 AM UTC

Sunday, May. 1, 2016 11:46 AM UTC

After four straight games with the UNDER cashing in, has the total for Sunday's Game 7 between the Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets dropped too low for our NBA picks?

Jason's 2015-16 record as of April 30: 36-40-1 ATS, 11-4-1 Total

Easy money, or the easiest money? We've been rolling in dough here at the ranch ever since we decided to put the UNDER in our NBA picks for the postseason. The games are more competitive, the officials are allowing the players to smash into each other like Smash-Up Derby cars, and the betting public has done its part by overbetting the OVER, as the public is wont to do.

So when does the total get too low for this betting strategy to work? Good question, one that we don't really have an answer for. The total for Sunday's Game 7 (1:00 p.m. ET, ABC) between the Charlotte Hornets and the Miami Heat is down to 191 points, down from 192.5 at the open for Game 6. If we want to bail and go back to the spread, the Heat are 6.5-point home faves on our NBA odds board as we go to press.


Sunday Driver On A Saturday Night
Assuming our early consensus figures are accurate, the sharps might be uncertain what to do about Sunday's total. The early action was divided 50/50 between the OVER and the UNDER; however, the UNDER has 67 percent support at press time, so it's probably safe to say the wiseguys are sticking with the game plan.

As for the point spread, even though the Hornets lost Game 6 at home on Friday, they were the choice of 95 percent of first responders for Game 7. Charlotte's support has tailed off to 59 percent at press time, but that's still a healthy number, and it's still plenty early in the process. The Hornets did look like the sharp pick going into this series, after all.


Batum Raider
There could be some trouble ahead for the Hornets, though. Nicolas Batum (15.6 PER, +2.0 BPM) is listed as questionable for Game 7 after coming off the bench in Games 5 and 6. He ended up missing the second half of Friday's game after aggravating his strained left foot; Charlotte lost 97-90 as a 2-point home fave.

The Heat aren't fully healthy, either. Josh Richardson (11.4 PER, +0.6 BPM) is a game-time call after hurting his left shoulder in the waning seconds of Friday's contest. It doesn't look too bad, though, after Richardson's MRI came up negative. Interestingly enough, Miami didn't play Tyler Johnson (13.8 PER, +0.5 BPM) in Game 6, even though head coach Erik Spoelstra said Johnson would see some action.

If we want to keep pounding the UNDER, it'd be more useful for us to have Richardson play and not Johnson. Richardson has done a fine job coming off the bench and containing Kemba Walker (20.8 PER, +4.0 BPM). But Johnson has been a decent two-way player this year, so let's not worry about it too much. Once more UNDER the breach, dear friends, and may the sphere be with you.

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Free NBA Pick: UNDER 191.5 (–105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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