NBA Odds: Profit Off of the Recent Coaching Developments

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, May 8, 2014 6:29 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 8, 2014 6:29 PM UTC

There are some high profile jobs open right now in the NBA, and speculation has run wild over the last several weeks. Bovada sportsbooks has some great NBA Odds for just this sort of prop, and I think there could be some value with these unusual odds.

Who will be the new head coach of the Warriors?
With Mark Jackson out of the picture, the Warriors have said they are already looking into contacting Steve Kerr, and there are some other names on the docket that could be interesting values from Bovada if Kerr goes elsewhere. Below are the list of names and their odds and our free pick.

Stan Van Gundy (+150)

Steve Kerr (+250)

Lionel Hollins (+450)

Mike D’Antoni (+500)

George Karl (+700)

Fred Hoiberg (+700)

Kevin Ollie (+700) 

There are a lot of names that are in play here, but there are only a few that stick out. Steve Kerr would probably rather choose LA or New York over Oakland, even though the job is reportedly his if he wants it. That leaves the favorite of Stan Van Gundy, along with Lionel Hollins and Mike D’Antoni in my eyes. I don’t think any of the +700 options will be viable for the Warriors, but the three previously mentioned might have value.

I think D’Antoni would be perfect, but I don’t know if the Warriors would want him in the end versus some of their other options. Van Gundy has been out of the league a while, but Hollins might be the perfect compromise between the two, and he obviously has good value. He would continue the defensive mindset that Jackson installed, and his previous successes with the Grizzlies might boost him right behind Kerr as the Dubs’ second option. As long as Kerr goes to either New York or LA, I think Hollins could be a dark horse in Oakland.

My Pick: Lionel Hollins (+450)

Steve Kerr’s new home
Steve Kerr has been directly linked to Phil Jackson, and according to multiple reports, the job in New York is probably his if he wants it too. However, even though Kerr has never coached in the league it appears he is the hottest commodity on the market. Below is the list of current NBA Odds for Kerr’s new home in 2013-2014. 

Knicks (-350)

Warriors (+250)

Lakers (+700)

Not a coach (+500)

I’m not even including the Utah Jazz at +2000, because come on; you’d be better of buying a lottery ticket with the other three jobs that are open. The only value I can see in this is he not being a coach at +500. There is way too much chalk on the Knicks, even though that is probably where he will end up. In the end, this is the least valuable of all the props on Bovada right now, so it’s a no play.

My Pick: No Play

Will Mark Jackson be a head coach for Game 1 of the 2014-2015 season?
The value here is absolutely with the “no,” at +110. The NBA Odds of him being a head coach to start next season are at -150, but for successful fired coaches like Hollins, George Karl, and countless others, not many of them have been a head coach the very next season. D’Antoni did it, but he is the only example I can think of off the top of my head. 

According to Tom Ziller, since the end of the 2012-2013, there have been 19 head coaching turnovers in the NBA, and not many of the fired guys have found new head coaching gigs the very next season.

There are still a few gigs that might open up this offseason. If the Pacers or Thunder flame out in the second round, Frank Vogel and Scott Brooks’ seats could be heating up. Nothing is set in stone, but even if more jobs open up, the odds of Jackson getting another head coaching job are slim for 2014-2015.

My Pick: ‘No’ (+110)

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