NBA Odds Give Warriors Edge Over Cavaliers in Game 4: Expect GSW to Shine Tonight

David Lawrence

Wednesday, June 10, 2015 12:05 PM GMT

Cavaliers are simply outplaying GSW in the NBA Finals. Cleveland covered the NBA odds in game 3 as Golden State is being backed into a corner. How will the Warriors respond in Game 4? 

The Golden State Warriors Can Win Because...
They have done what they did in the Memphis series. Remember that series? It looks just like this one. The Warriors won Game 1 at home, then lost Game 2 when their offense looked absolutely miserable. In Game 3 of that series, on the road, the Warriors fell behind by more than 15 points, made a rally, but fell short in the end. Yet, the fact that Golden State's offense finally picked up and showed some signs of coming to life seemed to give the team the spark it needed moving into Game 4. When Game 4 of that Memphis series rolled around, the Warriors played their best game of the playoffs. They drubbed the Grizzlies and did not look back after that. The Warriors haven't faced a challenge such as the one Memphis gave to them since that moment, but they're in the middle of a challenge now.

The specific good news is that Stephen Curry finally played like an MVP again in the fourth quarter. He had scored just 10 total points in the first three quarters of Game 3, but in the fourth, he awakened. Curry had made just two three-point shots through three quarters, but in the fourth quarter, he hit five bombs and scored 17 points in the period. He brought the Warriors within one point, and though the team didn't win, it can now have confidence that its best player will be able to play his best for all of Game 4, not just one quarter. If Curry plays the way he's capable of playing, a Cleveland team with a limited rotation -- using only eight players, and only six for anything beyond 10 minutes -- is probably going to run out of gas. Cleveland has successfully made this series ugly for Golden State, but the flip side of that is if the Warriors play well, the Cavaliers probably won't be able to keep pace. Not with their limited resources and thin bench.

Must Check: NBA Finals Prop Betting Guide

The Cleveland Cavaliers Can Win Because...
They have dictated all three games of this series, so why should they be expected to stop now? The Cavaliers are hounding Golden State's Splash Brothers. Curry scored just 10 points through three quarters before his late rally fell short. Klay Thompson scored just 14 points in Game 3. He went off in Game 2, but the Cavaliers adjusted and were a lot better on him on Tuesday. The other thing to realize here is that Cleveland can continue to devote so much attention to Curry because the other Warriors just aren't getting it done. Harrison Barnes was 0 for 8 from the field in Game 3. Draymond Green was 2 for 10. Those two players are too central to the Warriors' offense to be that bad -- they have to be better if Golden State is going to win. Yet, nothing we've seen in this series suggests that Barnes and Green are going to pick it up on offense. As long as those guys stay cold from teh field, even a better Stephen Curry won't be enough to account for all the other weaknesses we're seeing on the Warriors. When one team so consistently dictates the pace and tempo of a series, you should realize how entrenched the trend is and respect it. Plus, Cleveland is playing at home.

 

Outlook
The Warriors did find life at the end of Game 3. Had they not found it, Cleveland would make more sense here. Since Golden State finally developed some rhythm on offense, though, the Warriors probably deserve the benefit of the doubt. Take them on the NBA odds in this one.

NBA Pick: Golden State at Bovada