NBA Odds & Free Pick: Hornets vs. Heat

Darin Zank

Sunday, November 23, 2014 2:27 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 23, 2014 2:27 PM UTC

The worm may have turned in the Miami-Charlotte rivalry. NBA odds are in favor of the Hornets snapping that same streak the had three weeks ago, and pick up a cover in the process. Will they?

Hornets-Heat Betting Odds
As of early Sunday morning this game had not yet been lined in the NBA odds board, because of the Dwyane Wade injury situation. Wade has missed recent action with a sore hamstring, and his status for Sunday was uncertain.


Hornets-Heat: The Match-Up
After going 54-28 last year, then losing in the NBA Finals, then losing LeBron James, Miami went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 44. At 7-6 SU (7-6) ATS on the season the Heat are about on pace for 44 wins or so. Miami had lost three games in a row, but has won two of its last three, after beating the Magic in Orlando Saturday night 99-92. The Heat were hot, shooting 52 percent from the floor and making 12 of 26 shots from 3-point land. Thursday Miami lost at home to the Clippers 110-93, after winning at Brooklyn Monday night 95-83.

On the other side of this match-up Charlotte, after going 43-39 last season and making the playoffs, went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 45. But the Hornets are off to a slow start, at 4-9 SU (5-7-1 ATS). Charlotte has lost four games in a row, after falling at home to Orlando Friday night 105-100, whiffing on the cover as a five-point favorite. The Hornets led that game 70-47 midway through the third quarter, and by 15 points into the fourth, but choked it away, allowing the Magic to score 40 point in the final frame. Charlotte shot 46 percent from the field, but allowed Orlando to shoot 48 percent. Wednesday night the Hornets lost at Indiana 88-86 on a bucket at the buzzer.


Hornets-Heat, Statistically Speaking
Charlotte ranks 25th in the league in shooting at 43 percent, 19th in 3-point shooting at 34.5 percent and just 26th in FT shooting at 71 percent. The Hornets also rank 22nd in FG defense, allowing opponents to shoot 46 percent,17th in rebounding at -1 per game but own a 21/12 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is pretty good. Miami ranks fifth in FG shooting at 47 percent, sixth in 3-point shooting at 38 percent and 19th in FT shooting at 75 percent. The Heat also rank 25th in FG defense at 46 percent, 28th in rebounding at -4 per game, and own a 21/14 A/TO ratio.


Hornets-Heat Recent History
Miami had beaten Charlotte 16 times in a row, with a little help from Mr. James, until three weeks ago, when the Hornets defeated the Heat 96-89, covering as one-point home favorites. Charlotte led that game by just a bucket at halftime, juiced that lead to 15 early in the fourth quarter, then allowed Miami to rally to within three points with just over two minutes to go. Hornet Kemba Walker then hit a 3-pointer and four free-throws from there to secure the victory and the cover for Charlotte. The Hornets only shot 43 percent from the floor that game, but held the Heat to just 39 percent shooting. That NBA pick played UNDER its total of 190, as the teams combined to go just 9-for-40 from 3-point range.


Hornets-Heat Betting Trends
Charlotte is 6-7 on the totals this season, as Hornets games have averaged 194 points. Miami is 5-8 on the totals, as Heat games have also averaged 194 points.


Injury Update
Wade has missed the last five games with a bad hamstring, and is uncertain for Sunday night. Even if he plays we have to wonder how effective he might be.


Hornets-Heat Free Pick
Miami shot the lights out last time out; we don't think the Heat can do it again Sunday. And while Charlotte pissed a victory away its last time out, we think the Hornets can bounce back. So we like the visiting team in this spot.

Free NBA Pick: Charlotte at 5Dimes

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