Not an easy day for NBA props with at least three different playoffs teams expected to rest particular players, though at the moment we do not know which ones, making it more confusing.
We instead will focus our attention on the teams that either have to win or are out the postseason, being able to trust the NBA odds more sufficiently. It is a whacky time of year in the Association, with lines that seem out of proportion and even more you do not which teams will come to play, even those chasing history (Yea Golden State, we are talking about you!). Regardless, we as bettors have to prod on and do our best with the information we can uncover.
For NBA picks on props, these are the four we like best.
Pistons vs. Magic - Orlando Over/Under 105 Total Points (-115)
Orlando has lost five in a row to Detroit and it has not been pretty for the Magic, being crushed by 17.8 points a contest. Nonetheless, in spite of this, Orlando has not given up on the season in posting recent 4-1 SU and ATS record and comes out ready to make life finally hard on the Pistons. Detroit is after first winning season in eight years and hold two-game lead for last playoff spot, yet is 2-3 SU and its offense is not reminding anyone of Villanova's, failing to shoot better than 42.1 percent in this period. With Orlando having averaged 118.6 PPG in their last five, I think they end drought to Pistons in fashion and win this prop.
Prop Play - Magic Over 105 Points
Nets vs. Wizards - J. Wall Over/Under 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)
John Wall has been a turnover machine, averaging 4.6 a game in his last five outings and overall it has affected other parts of his game. In this span, he is down to 21.6 points and rebounds and over his past 10 trips to the court he is at 23.4 for the same combination. For the season the Wizards point guard is right about where the sportsbooks have him tonight at 25.8, but the feeling here is even against bumbling Brooklyn, Wall hits the wall and comes up short.
Prop Play - J. Wall Under 25.5 Points and Rebounds
Pelicans vs. Celtics - New Orleans Over/Under 97 Total Points (-115)
For the season, New Orleans is at 102.5 PPG, but since losing so many key players, in their last eight outings they are down to 95.6 PPG in that span. Facing Boston's more up tempo pace could benefit the Pelicans, but not without Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon and Jrue Holiday, who are all done for the season. In fact, New Orleans only starting player averaging more than 7.6 points is Tim Frazier (13.5 PPG) and he was signed 20 days ago. The Celtics are ordinary on defense, but that will be good enough against this Pelicans flock.
Prop Plays - Pelicans Under 97 Points
Rockets vs. Mavericks - Dallas to Cover +0.5 First Half Spread (-120)
Houston, Dallas and Utah are fighting for the last two slots in the West and tonight's outcome will play a key role. After giving up 124 PPG in a five-game period facing mostly offensive-minded opponents and losing all but one, coach Rick Carlisle somehow convinced his Dallas troops to play better defense, slow the pace just a little and the Mavericks have won four in a row (3-1 ATS), permitting just 86 PPG, which has to be one the wildest quick turnarounds in NBA history. Though Houston qualifies in the previous group of scoring points, the Rockets are abysmal 18-33 ATS vs. the first half line against teams scoring 99 or more points a game this season. Also, Houston is 4-12 versus the first half line after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games, trailing by 5.5 PPG after two quarters.
Prop Play - Dallas Covers +0.5 First Half Spread