NBA Odds: Celtics' Fervid Pace To Push The Game 'Over' vs. Pelicans

Charles Stark

Wednesday, April 6, 2016 12:17 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 6, 2016 12:17 PM UTC

With one team in the playoffs and the other out it seems like we have a pretty uninteresting game when Pelicans visit Celtics. Will these teams nail it or show a lower total than odds makers predict?

Odds makers have set the total for this game at 208.5 like at Pinnacle -105. For one of my NBA picks I am going to back over the total as this game sets up to be a track meet from the opening tip. With the Pelicans coming off a back to back I expect the Celtics to score at will and for the up tempo Pelicans to score enough to help get over the total. I believe there is some value on the total for this game and odds makers have set the over under decently high.


New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans average 102.6 points and 86 field goal attempts per game which ranks 15th and eighth in the league respectively. Of course without Anthony Davis this team is not nearly as good but they are still pushing tempo and allowing teams to do the same. On the season they allow opponents to get up 84 field goal attempts per game which ranks 10th in the league which is not bad, but they also allow 39 of those to go in the bucket which ranks them 23rd in the NBA. Offensively they can still shoot the three averaging 35.7% from distance and their overall offensive statistics hover around the middle of the league highlighted by ranking 12th in field goals made per game.

Defensively they are one of the worst in the league and I expect the Celtics with their tremendous pace to put up a lot of points tonight. On the season the Pelicans rank in the bottom five of the NBA in opponent shooting efficiency, field goal percentage, overall, two, and three point shooting percentages. This game could get ugly in a hurry but I think there is good value on taking the over because I expect New Orleans will still be able to put up some points with the pace.

Boston Celtics
Boston averages 105.7 points per game and average 89.5 field goal attempts per game which ranks first in the league. This could be a real dangerous team to take on in the playoffs according to the NBA odds as they seem to be peaking at the right time. Although offensively their percentages are not great they move the ball extremely well averaging 24.1 assists, and make a lot of shots they put up averaging 39.3 field goals per game both of which rank sixth in the NBA.

Defensively they rank in the top ten in most categories but they do allow a lot of pace and tempo with opponents averaging 85.1 attempts per game which ranks the Celtics in the bottom third of the league. As well, Boston is not a lockdown type of defense but rely more on being the more efficient team night after night. The Celtics allow 102.3 points per game which ranks 13th in the league and tonight I expect they will give up their share to the Pelicans. Essentially I also expect them to put up well over 110 points.

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Free NBA Pick: Over 208.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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